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northam43

06/10/11 10:51 AM

#344 RE: northam43 #343

The SPX 60 min has confirmed a Phase 1 at the 09:30 CT hourly bar. The good news is this may be a very short Phase 1 as the Phase 1 projected low of 1276.7 has already been put in. So the bottom may have been reached.

The SPX Daily Phase 1 put in a new low today at 1275.57, could this be the cycle low? The SPX 60 min will answer that question.

There is still three trading weeks left in this Month, that means the Weekly Phase 1 could very well put in a cycle low before the end of the month The Weekly projected low is 1241.43

This last Weekly cycle was only 33.4 points from the low to the high. The last time a Weekly cycle had that few of points was Sep 26, 2005 to Oct 3, 2005 which that cycle had only 21.93 points. The next cycle had 126.7 points. So if the Weekly projected low of 1241.43 is put in, the next cycle high could be around 1368. Staying above the 1290 level keeps the Monthly in Phase 2.

As I have said before, I believe this is just a Weekly correction and the SPX will retest the 1370 level before any new Bear market is confirmed.
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northam43

06/10/11 8:31 PM

#345 RE: northam43 #343

SPX Cycles Consolidated Daily Reports:

Today the SPX 60 min opened in Phase 1. It remained in Phase 1 the entire trading day. The Phase 1 low for this cycle is 1266.28 which is below the projected target low. This Phase 1 is now in extended Phase 1 as it has exceeded the average Phase 1 duration. Things are sure looking bearish.

The SPX Daily Phase 1 once again made a new cycle low at 1266.28 and once again closed below the LTL. This being the 7th trading day in Phase 1, the average is 6.05 trading days, so the Daily Phase 1 is now in an extended Phase 1.

The SPX Weekly confirmed a new Phase 1 today. This is the cause of the 60 min & Daily Phase 1's being extended. The projected low for this Weekly Phase 1 is 1241.43 by July 8th. A Weekly Buy Blocker is currently active ending July 1st.

The SPX Monthly drifts lower, the Monthly EMA 3 is at 1305.58 which is 15.23 points above the Monthly UTL. If the Monthly EMA 3 crosses (no confirmation needed) below the Monthly UTL, a buy for SPXU (SPX short 3x) will be triggered. A Monthly EMA 3 crossing below the Monthly UTL normally indicates a new Bear Market is likely. The Monthly price will more than likely drop below the Monthly LTL and remain below the Monthly LTL until the Bear market low has been established. I'm getting way ahead of myself, hopefully this will not occur and the Monthly continues in Phase 2 or goes into a one month Phase 1 that has happened once of the 5 one Month Phase 1's since 1987. The SPXU would greatly reduce the downside loss of the SSO positions during a Bear market.

The SPX Cycle Portfolio is currently 100% invested. The current percent return YTD is -3.66%. The SPX is currently at 1.06%.

Have a GREAT WEEKEND!