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bbgold

06/08/11 12:57 AM

#334 RE: northam43 #332

I like the Buy blockers
What I would really like to see are some more sell/stop loss triggers.
Here is some old Larry Williams Says from a seminar I took from Larry Williams and Tom DeMark in Nov 2001.
Larry had a lot of leading indicators that he watched for. Once he entered a trade he Always had an Exit strategy in place. He talked about how Everyone needed an Exit strategy no matter how good their system was. He told a story of a young Futures trader who had developed a system that was near 100% accurate in it's Buy strategies. It was so Good that the person never setup a Stop/Stop loss exit point. So one day Larry and the guy were out fishing and there was some terrible market news that sent the market into a spin. The person's Buy trades had already been triggered and without the Exit strategy they ended up going limit and losing most All of their $ invested. It reminded me of May 1988 when I was on a fishing trip for a week. I had ridden out the downdraft of Oct 1987 with a 50% portfolio loss, but made it all back by May 1988. I was feeling cocky and the Markets looked for a healthy recovery but I was greedy and took a fully invested/fully margined trade on a high dividend stock. I was Confident so I never set a Stop/Stop loss order on the trade. After a week of fishing I come back Sunday night to see that Thursday the company had been sold off and all the assets going back to the parent company except for one dividend. The stock had dropped from $8 to $4 with a pending $2 dividend due. Monday morning the phone was ringing with a Margin call and all I could say was Sell. That was the first time I had lost All of my life's savings. I even had a Rules of Trading list on my computer that included Don't Fully Invest and Don't Fully Margin but I was Confident it would be a Good trade. Lesson - You can Never fully foresee how News or Events can move the Markets.
Back to Nov 2001, the markets have just started recovering from the Sept 11 attacks and it Looked like a good time to invest in the markets, much like Oct 1987, so I had decided to quit my job to trade full time. I talked to Tom DeMark, a wizard at Market timing and trends, and he said I should Wait a year and just paper trade to make sure the Markets were favorable to trade. I had already quit my job and Indexpulse was just starting out and All I could think about was making trades. Tom had Great advice as 2002 was a Bear of a year to trade with multiple market swings and long downtrends. I often found myself averaging down on trades and exiting on any bounce just to get out Even on trades. I wasn't looking for Stops but only Exits on Gains. It was a costly year made worse by monthly living expenses that kept eating away at my investing $. Yes, I had not learned from any of the 2001 seminars that All 'preached' good money management and limiting the amount of portfolio $ exposed (usually less than 5%)and decided to quit trading to focus more on personal issues and expenses. 2003 until 2011 have been some great investment years that I missed but Many recent traders have forgotten, or never experienced, lessons from the past. Following Indexpulse taught me that you must Believe in your System and follow it but that Stops are needed for when the Market goes against you. Trends are made to be broken and you cannot rely on your own personal judgement as to when to Exit. Preservation of Capitol should be #1 on your list regardless of what you Hope for.
Sorry for the long diatribe, it is late and I am tired.
There is probably more I could add but for now I hope you can take this in and analyze it and take a second look at how you have been trading.
Everyone would like to see you have Success with your system.
Just don't be stubborn to look at ways to make it Safe.
Good Trading!
Sincerely, Bob
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northam43

06/08/11 5:03 PM

#339 RE: northam43 #332

SPX Cycles Consolidated Daily Reports:

Another day of new records on the SPX 60 min Phase 1. The SPX Daily Phase 1 has dug a deeper hole. The SPX Weekly is now another day closer to a Phase 1, the SPX Weekly would have to go up more than 55 points tomorrow to remain in Phase 2. The SPX Monthly price is now below the monthly EMA 8, if the monthly closes the month below the EMA 8 more than likely a new Monthly Phase 1 will be confirmed the next month.