Zeev, if I recall correctly, at the time of the Gulf War, the market was weak from the time Iraq invaded Kuwait until the very moment that Desert Shield transitioned to Desert Storm. From that point on, there was a powerful rally that never looked back.
Your prediction this time around seems to be the exact opposite (i.e. relative strength going into the war, and then major weakness around the time the war is expected to start). Does this mean your turnips don't really expect a second Gulf War, or does it mean your turnips don't expect market history to repeat itself? And if it is the latter, could you provide a word or two of explanation why the turnips don't expect a "relief rally" once the war begins?
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