My guess is that his confidence was prety high before the reanalysis. After all, they invested $1.4B in the product.
I don't think the re-analysis shows anything really new. The data is just presented better.
The truth is that th ph 2 was small and poorly designed. it's hard to draw conclusions from a Multipple ascending dose study with 4 doses, across two genetic types, where the sample size for any subanalysis may be as small as 10 subjects. This is especially true with the amount of variability seen in cognitive tests.
My guess is that most of his confience is dur to the removing of amyloid as seen on PIB-PET and the reduction of p_tau as seen through lumbar punture. They know they are affecting the underlying mechanisms
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