Replies to post #120561 on Biotech Values

[oc631]

So I am guessing your hoping for slightly positive launches but limited to Genotype 1

It's in my best interest if the launches are a disaster and everybody waits for an all oral treatment. VRUS will be a tremendous investment for years to come once you consider the international market.

[mcbio]

I wonder how the stock reacts if VRTX/MRK have successful launches vs. poor launches

If they are too good perhaps people start worrying less patients will be available by the time they get to market.

If they have poor launches maybe people think HCV patients aren't as eager to get treatment as people think.

This is precisely my line of thinking in there not being a need for me to rush back into ACHN. I think I can wait for 12-week results on ACH-1625 at the end of the year without me worrying about a large jump in share price even if results are positive. That way, I can avoid a major binary event (risk of safety signal) and I think 1625 will be ready for a partner (or a possible buyout for ACHN) if data is positive at that time. (I'm confident there will be plenty of room and opportunity for a QD 2nd gen HCV PI down the road.)

[zipjet]

I wonder how the stock reacts if VRTX/MRK have successful launches vs. poor launches

VRTX wins.

At least that is what one of my friends claims. He will be treating patients for HCV.

After reviewing the treatment protocols for MRK and VRTX he claims that the MRK protocol is much more difficult and time consuming for the treating physician group. So he and the physicians he works with will be using the VRTX drug.

He also claims they cannot treat the many patients that want treatment and are putting them off. At this point a full-time practitioner will start treatment on 3 new patients per week.

Someone interested VRTX should be able to get some idea of the revenue ramp from this data.

ij