Replies to post #6020 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[olivernoyes]

Strindberg, what you just quoted was exactly what got my hackles up as well. I wrongly attributed it to Snow, but I guess it was Drexion's post after all.

Drexion, Strindberg hit it on the head. It's GREAT if you want to point out the negatives. I'm all for debate. It's good to see both sides of every investment, and from other people's viewpoints especially.

But stick to the facts.

When you start posting innuendo and hearsay instead of facts, that's when I discount your posts.

[treit2002]

Totally agree that honest negative opinions based on facts are fine.

I am very long this company, so I post from that perspective. I try to give my reasons for optimistic posts, and welcome any debate.

I absolutely think the company needs to explain how the dairy sale and new land purchases are linked. I expect much will be learned in Sweden; and more so, if by some miracle the Form-10 review is completed by then.

Frankly, absent these types of explanations of business directions, I'm surprised that the share price has basically held up, given by far the weakest quarter of the year, whether this was known beforehand or not.

Now, we can expect revenues to jump every quarter, from $3M to ~ $8M to $10M in Q2 to an average of $22.5M in the 3rd and 4th, if targets are made. Those targets are replacing dairy revenues from Q1 and $58M in full year guidance. We can also expect qualification for uplisting and increased news releases and investor relations work; e.g., road shows, etc.

Guidance is not given lightly. Solomon doesn't guide $32M+ for the fish business without having a good idea what contracts are signed; what are close, and for what farm capacities, therefore revenues. Does not mean that there isn't uncertainty.

If guidance is made, the company is MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better off than if equal or even somewhat higher revenues were recorded with the dairy. Why?

Because they will have created a much larger infrastructure to drive more scalable businesses, that can be spun out after reaching some critical mass. And because they will have proven those businesses -- fish and cattle -- faster, and with higher revenues than had they not concentrated on them. At least, that's my take.

The gross profit margin for the cattle business in 2010 and the the new sheep houses in 2011 were/are 15%, on small revenues. The gross margin for the cattle business in 2011 is projected at about 30% - 35%. Very likely that the gross margin will increase again in 2012, and the sheep business will follow the same trajectory. Growth is built into the business models, and this is before adding a distribution network on top, and franchising the proven concepts -- 2012 initiatives.

Likewise, the fish business has growth built in. If four farms are built in 2011, then SIAF will receive income from fish sales in 2012 based on 25% equity stake from 5 farms, rather than 1. In addition, in 2013, the equity stake in each farm will bump up, perhaps to 50%. So those revenues double without doing anything.

[Drexion2004]

Strindberg, your right that I have no further data to share with you about that -- since I did not see the data itself and was only told casually during a phone conversation. The source has been good in the past with what he says though, shrug.

Given the current climate and abusive fraud in the Chinese space, I would think that any long would want to hear any possible tidbits which *might* lead to something -- Which is why I suggested in that same post that people do DD to check things carefully to make sure everything is ok for themselves. I made this comment in one short part of a post (which was one among many) that I wrote. Shrug.

I didn't imply this was "proof", I didn't even convey that much CONFIDENCE in what I had heard.

So your suggesting that if I hear something, I should stay silent about it and let people who might want to be alerted about possible problems (even if unsubstantiated) go on their merry way?

I guess some people don't want to learn there might be a problem with the plane's engine until the plane crashes too.

You can try to read whatever motivation you want from my posts, but let me be clear: If I just wanted to raise concerns and was just spouting lies, I could do an awfully better job at it than I have been. I have been more than willing to correct things I say if I find them to be untrue, like the payment-plan only being for a small part of the purchase.

Regarding my tone, give me an example of when I did not keep a good tone? Have I cursed, insinuated people have hidden agendas or done personal attacks? It seems to me that you are the one 'losing your tone' today, not me.

Heck, i've even said I think the share price is going HIGHER in the short term because of the JF presentation in Sweden -- Yes I also said I knew people who were going to use that opportunity to short because I do know such people (This is a fact). I am not one of those people, I have no plans to short SIAF -- Just as I have no plans to go long SIAF until either the price goes down further or they prove the ramp-up in their developing business segments is happening as they claim.

-Fernando