Replies to post #5959 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[hyperboy262626]

Question...Why two meetings in Sweden in six months for this management team? What do you make of this relationship?

[The Swede]

We still don't know what SIAF actually will have to pay for this "expensive land" from there own pocket in the end. I think that the final cost of the land will be a positive suprise.

[Lucky Loser]

Fernando, have you ever heard the phrase, "Get out while the gettin's good?' Obviously, you have.

The dairy would have proven itself a failure. With increased government regs, a ceiling on price, and a virtual monopoly serving only a few of the big congloms, the gettin' out time was now.

What? Wait for a sudden downturn and then decide to sell?

Ask anyone who's underwater with their home and they'll cite you a personal example of why not to make this mistake.

No rose colored glasses being worn here. Just simple "thinking ahead of the game."

[treit2002]

Drexion,

Let's see.

1) what you think of my tone is totally irrelevant, certainly to me
2) please post anything you think I've "glossed over," or any negative you perceive. I'm happy with healthy debate

The second half will show phenomenal growth in the two franchise modeled businesses that are targeted to be spun out in 2013, fish and cattle. If those plans are executed, SIAF is worth many times its current valuation. Plain and simple. This isn't rose colored, it's guidance. So, to me, it's a question of credibility and meeting milestones.

I've said that I'd have preferred the dairy would have been sold now to maintain stepwise growth, every quarter. I've also posted that I think the price paid for new land use acquisition needs to be explained. The true milestones will evidence in financials starting in the third quarter. But we can see the prerequisites with new cattle houses being built and fish contracts with large capacities being signed. More will have to come, and be aired. In Sweden??

You mentioned $500k cash balance.

Low, it's true. Expected, maybe not that low, but yes very much expected. The company is in a rapid expansion mode. It clearly sees major opportunities to grow its two flagship businesses very fast, and it is making major investments to do so. It is remaining profitable while doing so from quarter one, even without 3/4 of 2010 revenues. And they've guided considerably growing profits 2011 vs. 2010.

It seems pretty clear to me that they've are making a serious effort and investment to build a much bigger company, with infrastructure and business models that will grow profits in 2011, but really capitalize on in 2012 and beyond. So, low cash balance is pretty much expected, since cap ex is more than their whole market cap.

I do expect Q2 and subsequent quarters to show higher cash balances.

Yes, they paid back some debt with shares. Perhaps those people sold as you suggested. That would be positive, if its already occurred. Weren't these loans known before?

Instead I posted about subsequent events, the main one being that the dairy sale is for $14M more than previously reported. I think $14M of proceeds previously unreported outweighs $2M of known debt repaid with shares.