Replies to post #1521 on SPX Cycles System Daily Cycles (SPI:IN\X)

[northam43]

Rcks - If that be the case, this would be the 3rd cycle(technically the 4th cycle) in a row that the Phase 2 didn't make the average. That is not a very common occurence and with the last two phase 2 cycles be 1 trading day, then 2 trading days, if this one lasted only 1 trading day that would be more like a Bear Market than a Bull market.

So I would be very surprised if this Daily Phase 2 only lasted one day.

Looking at the Daily & Weekly MACDs, I believe we could see a huge push to the upside at anytime. I just hope the weekly don't cause me to sell off before it happens.

[JLS]

RCKS,

let's suppose for example that there are two scenarios for SPX puts ...

1) large Put position as primary bet because investors expect market to turn bearish, and when all things considered, they want to make money as it does go down;

2) large Put position as secondary bet because investors expect market to turn bullish and they want those gains on stocks being held, but they aren't convinced so they take Put positions as insurance and are willing to loose on those (as insurance always has an underlying cost).

One argument says investors expect the market to go up; the other argument says to expect the market to go down. Net result is net Put/Call position says nothing about market direction.

What do you think about that?