PPS Est. $4.16 EU--$12.60 US/EU,The several hundred million
after further dd, recent developments & concerns about dilution i've gone back & dug deeper for my new PPS target...
PR article:Research & Diagnostic Antibodies LLC--http://markets.about.com/popular.htm/?GU... per the article--- "" it is well accepted that better clinical outcomes are achieved when treatment is begun "immediately after diagnosis". The cost of treating septic patients in an ICU can add ""$10,000"" or more per day to a patient’s bill with treatments lasting at least two days and often more than 20 days. Since one in eight ICU patients are at risk for sepsis, the cost in the United States alone to treat sepsis exceeds $30 billion a year."" {my take on this article--ctso has the possibility of selling cytosorb in lg quantities} Now read this article, ""it will raise the hair on your back""-- surviving sepsis.com/background Over 18 million cases of sepsis occur each year – that’s equivalent to the entire population of Denmark, Finland, Ireland and Norway added together each year (2). Worryingly, the number of severe sepsis cases is set to grow at a rate of 1.5% per annum from the current annual incidence of 3.0 cases per 1,000 of the population (2). This amounts to an additional 1 million cases per year in the USA alone by 2020. One doctor has an interesting statement to make about the primary STD OF CARE recommended: “For example, there is not strong evidence that says that giving antibiotics is a top-notch practice of medicine and that it saves lives compared to not giving antibiotics,” points out co-author Sean Townsend, MD, associate director of the medical ICU at Rhode Island Hospital in Providence. “But nobody on the committee would ever feel comfortable saying that.” {OK, so the "primary treatment" issued by the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines is in ...QUESTION? WOW...} {now maybe you will understand the full potential of ctso filters as an adjunct therapy $$$, New world guidelines from the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Org. should read: Institute interventions rapidly with hemoperfusion as an adjunctive therapy (cytosorb filters)} Worldwide annual sepsis expense runs in multi billions( that number does not include additional hospital expense for lawsuits,& extended incident stays-many of the EU nations actually reward hospitals for getting patients out faster "translated"-give us a product that can get the patient the hell out faster by one day & we make money.
New pps calculation: EU & US estimated sepsis deaths (~225,000 US & ~135,000 EU = 360,000 deaths/yr or multiply by 3 as 1/3 or more die that get severe sepsis = 1,080,000 annually severe sepsis incidents "conservative".......... Dr.Chan stated "cytosorb has an high margin & will sell for about ~$500/per filter" (one incident is 7 days on avg,1 filter/day, so one patient incident cost $3500)
Let's just use a conservative "10% of annual severe sepsis incidents" to get our pps calculated: 1.088 mil.annual incidents x 10% = 108,000 incidents x $3500 = $378 Mil sls x ~.50 margin = $189 million profit.................... (Dr. Chan said the margin was to exceed 40-60 percent) Using current O/S of ~140 Mil shares & estimated diluted shares of 300Mil conservtive pe of 20, we get an EU/US PPS of: o/s pps = $27 US/EU diluted pps = $12.60 US/EU. (the EU alone would be 1/3 of the above pps that is 1/3 the incidents per above, so $9 and $4.16 respectively)
Now they claim partnering may be needed,so assuming we split the margin ??? reduce the top by 1/2 or less? Either way you have a clear winner here (good 28 day mortality numbers will set this Co. on fire). Remember this is for only severe sepsis & none of the other markets Dr. Chan is targeting. GLTA & REMEMBER DUE YOUR DD "on your own".
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