Replies to post #119784 on Biotech Values

[pcrutch]

Thanks, I read the PR a wee bit too fast, long day. What kind of market do you see for Bude MMX? Roth had this to say

" Budesonide MMX - value of $5/share. Budesonide MMX is a local steroid
for ulcerative colitis. It was developed by Cosmo, which has already
brought Lialda to the market with its drug-delivery technology. The
compound (bud MMX) performed better numerically in clinical trials than
Asacol (a $500M+ drug) and Entocort (a $200M+ drug). Our valuation
metric hinges on a 70% chance of approval (phase 3 trials completed
under an SPA), $300 million peak potential sales, a valuation of 3X peak
sales, and a discount factor of 20% for 4 years"

[DewDiligence]

...I would think Humira was tested on top of existing medications.

Some but not all of the patients were on concurrent therapy with a steroid or immunosupressant. All patients who were not on concurrent therapy failed prior therapy with a steroid or immunosuppressant:

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00408629

[DewDiligence]

FDA advisory panel endorses Remicade for pediatric UC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Advisory-Committee-prnews-3267937054.html?x=0&.v=1

Humira will soon be submitted for this indication (#msg-62953768).