Maybe I haven't focused enough on FOB's for their insulin products. In this environment having marginally better new products probably isn't enough to protect them. I expect Victoza to do very well, but maybe that's not enough to compensate.
But if not NVO, then what's the buy-and-forget diabetes play?
NVO would be a bona fide buy and forget stock if not for the FoB threat, but that changes the calculus, IMO.
I wish I had just forgot about NVO after I bought almost at the bottom of 2009 in 40s, sold too early in low 90s. FoB risk definitely played a role in my decision, I also over estimated Bydureon's approval chance, didn't expect Victoza would have the chance to thoroughly establish itself on the market for so long.
NVO is such an impressive company in both direction and execution for long period of time.
Novo Nordisk increased operating profit by 13% in the first six months of 2011 Sales growth of 11% in local currencies driven by Victoza®, NovoRapid® and Levemir®
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