Replies to post #389325 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Burk]

Well, Zeev, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I do think we get a pullback...maybe even a scary one...but I don't think we get a resumption of the big bad bear just yet. I am in agreement we're in a secular bear, but view the market activity since the 1220 top in the S&P as just a pullback within the cyclical bull. In fact, I think it's a great buying opportunity anywhere in here.

The price earning ratio is favorable in this low inflation environment, sentiment indicators, including 60 day put/call are at very, very high levels...as is the 10 day put/call...very few are looking at this as any kind of bottom and even your switch from bullish to bearish is, to me, an indication that there just aren't many bulls out there...

I could give a whole host of other reasons...but I think I've already given most of 'em in other posts. Of course, I'm not following the market blindly....and a breach of the previous low would have me change my mind. However, barring no violation of the low...I think we've bottomed and we'll be looking at mid to upper 1200's on the S&P going forward before a resumption of this secular bear...

I recall you and others were pretty bearish at the 2003 lows, too....

Good luck to us.

[ajtj99]

I'm looking for a test of NDX 1470-1471, then a flush towards 1425-1430, ideally after CSCO's earnings Tuesday. The 5-day TRIN on the COMP is at 0.75, which has led to fast, corrective dumps in the past.

Zeev, I'm kind of surprised you're still this bearish here. The NASI has bounced at trendline support out of the 2002 lows at -900, and it's a rare year when it gets down that low. There are lots of other extremes that hit levels comparable to the May and August 2004 lows as well as the March 2003 lows.

Furthermore, inverse H&S patterns are once again working well after failing for several months. The 10-day and 10-week moving average of the put/call is at extremely high levels. Specialist short levels are extremely low, the SPX has closed back above 1164 on a weekly basis, and Rydex numbers are at levels seen at major lows.

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty bullish on the markets over the next couple of months, although I believe this week may end red. We'll see.