FA, usd a few points
It sure does look like the pump will come.
That 200ma break is getting close
And we shall see our golden opportunity if this happens ;o)
My 2 general targets are the 100 and 200ma(weekly)
We've seen equity markets hit their 100 and start to rise out. Will see how far they bounce and then we can check that back with how the USD re-acts with it's 100
I think most of 2005 will be a ranged year for all of these broad markets(equities,gold,usd,oil) then with eventual breaks coming later..maybe around the time china does something with it's currency.
So equities going to there 200ma weekly isn't out of the question at all.
I expect the same as we all do..but some sort of short term pump should come first
To touch on something you wrote on Ander's board..
My conspiracy theory is that they will pump the USD into the start of this war with Iran/china.
For moral purposes over everything else.(meanwhile the asians will be selling into the strength no doubt)
I can picture the networks using the strengthening dollar to pump the stock markets...an all american pump
I can't really say if they'll be new highs in the stock markets, i'm certainly not betting on it. But i can't say it'd be that surprising either.
Pumps of exuberance usually extend further then reason
So it's hard to say how long it'll last either
Back to the war..it doesn't make sense IMO to have a crashing stock market, even with a strong dollar, leading into what will be a significant war, if it happens.
That's not america's style, and these markets move a certain way at a certain time for a reason.
They have already put the fear into this society.
Now they need to rally strength of the people
Best way to do that is give away easy money with a decent stock market
But like i said before..if they pump the dollar and equities..that brings back the era of the tech bubble. And should conclude this cyclical equity bull as we top out
Then, later this year into next, some real shit should hit the fan.
That's why I probably appear less bearish on equities although i share the same longterm views.
I think they're going to drag this top out aslong as possible(hell the dow has been topping for years. If you call the '02 lows the bottom of the top we've been topping since '97)
Almost a 10 year cycle of topping
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