Replies to post #136 on Global Value Investing

[throwerw]

ANS

2 billion pesos on the balance sheet due to security sales, 600 million total liabilities. Total Equity is 10.8 billion pesos, mostly in the form of cash and marketable securities. 1.35 billion shares outstanding, market cap 4.6 billion pesos.

The Company has been buying back shares on a regular basis, share count is down from 1.6 billion in 2006. Now that they have this huge amount of cash on the balance sheet, they could buy back shares in a big way, and it would be incredibly accretive to the stock's value. Let's say they are doing it now, and can take out 350 million shares at the current price. The stock has been trading at 3.4 pesos or below for four months.

Total Equity 9.6 billion
Total Shares 1 billion
Book Value per share 9.6 pesos

You can buy into companies like Philippines Long Distance Telephone, which already looks cheap with a 6% yield, at a third of the price. Wow.

[throwerw]

AEV PE 10

http://www.aboitiz.com/AEV/uploads/file/AEV%20FY2010%20Financial%20&%20Operating%20Performance_final.pdf

85% of earnings come from their ownership in Aboitz Power, 10% comes from Union Bank of the Philippines

AP PE 9.2

Half of generation comes from hydro and geothermal, Half comes from coal and oil

Power rates were way up in 2010, which resulted in a windfall for the company

Philippines has the highest power rates in the world
http://texaninthephilippines.com/2011/02/26/pi-has-worlds-highest-power-rates/

UBP PE 7.3

I'm not a bank expert, but this one looks pretty solid.

[throwerw]

ICT The reasoning for making this a top 3 investment doesn't really jump out at me.

2010 Annual Report
http://www.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2011/ICT_A17A_Dec2010.pdf

PE 22
PB 3

Earnings and EPS nearly doubled while revenue only increased by about 25%. Perhaps the company has some untapped pricing power that makes this possible.

TEL (ADR:PHI) I was already considering this as an investment before they announced a merger which sparked a run-up in the price. The merger will make PHI the dominant player in the Filipino mobile communication industry.

PE 11.5
Div 6%

"Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. announced it expects that there's probably going to be some modest dilution in fiscal 2011 and as the Company go into fiscal 2012. But it would expects by the time the Company get to fiscal 2013 the combined EPS would be ahead of where it would have been on a stand-alone basis. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts on an average are expecting the Company to report EPS of USD4.98 for fiscal 2011; EPS of USD4.98 for fiscal 2012; EPS of USD5.41 for fiscal 2013."

IPO For-profit education in the Philippines.

2010 Annual Report
http://www.pse.com.ph/html/ListedCompanies/pdf/2011/IPO_17A_Dec2010.pdf

PE 9
Div 4.5%

Looks reasonably priced. Anyway the point is you can buy these stocks for less than half their current price through ANS.

[throwerw]

EDC Energy Development Corporation

This one looks expensive at 30 times earnings, but there may be something hidden here.

In AP's most recent presentation on page 27, there is an item under "Privatization," "IPPA Contracts - Unified Leyte Geothermal Plants(EDC) 550MW" Unified Leyte currently belongs to EDC.

http://www.aboitizpower.com/investorrelations/uploads/file/AP%20FY2010%20Financial%20&%20Operating%20Performance.pdf

Geothermal makes up a big part of AP's power generation, and the economics look great.

EDC is focused exclusively on geothermal

http://www.energy.com.ph/our-expertise/exploration/

http://www.energy.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EDC-Investors-and-Analyst-Briefing-FY-2010-Financial-and-Operating-Highlights-Final.pdf

"In Chile, EDC applied for 13 sites via direct applications (September 2010) and participated in the tender process for another 5 geothermal concession areas (November 2010)"

"In Indonesia, EDC is assessing 16 priority sites in Sumatra, Java and North Sulawes"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_power_in_the_Philippines

The Philippines is second in the world only to the United States in geothermal power generation. EDC is leveraging their experience to develop geothermal projects in other developing countries like Chile, which have little to no experience with geothermal. Seems like a good position to be in.