Replies to post #13349 on Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

H.S. Dent Forecast: Expect Major Stock Rally in April

 
  
 TAMPA, Fla.--(Business Wire)--March 9, 2006--  
     Stocks are poised for a major spring rally believes  
 Harry S. Dent, Jr. founder and president of the H.S. Dent Foundation.  
    "The stock market continues to edge up, demonstrating strong  
 bullish trading patterns," said Dent. As one of the world's foremost  
 economic forecasters, Dent thinks the market's behavior indicates a  
 pull back in March, followed by a sharp upturn starting in April and  
 lasting into August. "The downside risks are still very limited at  
 this time, as the markets continue to make only minor corrections when  
 bad news hits regarding commodity prices or international tensions  
 like Iran or Nigeria. In addition, low interest rates, and a slowing  
 in housing prices increase the likelihood of a strong rally that  
 should start in April."  
    "Economic trends point to a slower-growing economy for the first  
 half of this year, followed by stronger, more sustainable growth near  
 year-end. The 5 percent drop in home sales is a clear indication that  
 the housing market is flattening, and this trend is expected to  
 continue for the next year or so," Dent explains. "Durable good sales  
 also dropped, by 10.2 percent, and the Fed seems ready to halt  
 interest rate hikes. Paradoxically, these signs all point to a strong  
 bull market."  
    Another indication that the market is on the verge of a rally is  
 that stocks appeared to be overbought in late February, "which is why  
 we predict a mild correction in March," Dent stated. "We expect a much  
 stronger rally to follow from April into August before a sharper  
 setback between September and October. In fact, we think there is a  
 strong chance that the market could reach 13,600 to 14,800 by August."  
    Other positive signs point to the break out of key stock market  
 indices. While international tensions and high oil prices temporarily  
 suppress stock prices, the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000  
 have spiked up sharply and have hit new highs in the past few weeks  
 Dent noted.  
    "Oil prices appear to have peaked at $71 last September," said  
 Dent. Despite price spikes due to tensions in Iran, the Nigerian  
 attack and recent threats to a Saudi oil complex, prices have edged  
 down as speculators see less opportunity on each failed commodity  
 price rally. "The key support near term is for oil prices to settle at  
 around $56 per barrel. Once oil breaks that price level and other  
 commodities such as natural gas and gold start to decline, speculators  
 will move investment dollars back into large-cap growth and technology  
 stocks.  
    "So, at long last, the stage is set for stocks to break out," Dent  
 emphasizes. "Look for small-cap and tech stocks to lead the next  
 rally, followed by strong moves in large-cap growth equities.  
 Investors should take advantage of any short-term market setbacks, so  
 they will be well positioned to profit from the impending bull  
 market."  
  
    About H.S. Dent Publishing:  
  
    H.S. Dent Publishing (www.hsdent.com) of Tampa, Fla. helps people  
 understand change and prepare for its arrival through a variety of  
 Dent publications, including the monthly H.S. Dent Forecast. The Dent  
 methodology, which is based on the study of demographics, or the study  
 of whole populations and their spending habits, takes financial  
 forecasting out of the world of theory and into the realm of  
 real-world consumer behavior, allowing investors to make intelligent  
 and informed economic decisions about their future.  
  
 Michael A. Burns & Associates, Inc.  
 H.S. Dent Media Contact  
 Virginia Stuart, 214-521-8596