Replies to post #55767 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[sylvester80]

I think Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sach's has gone bullish every year since the bubble burst. Nasdaq fell some 2000 more points since she was first bullish after the bubble burst. Even now we are much lower than where she went bullish, and I am sure many are worth many times less than they were in early 2001.

Just something to think about... cause nobody has a monopoly in being wrong... bulls or bears...

[wahz]

Barron's: You're extremely bullish. Why?

Gendell: This recovery, in my view, is no different than any other recovery. If you have been asleep for the last five years, wake up. If I told you that interest rates were 1¼%, GDP growth is 3% to 4%, the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau Index) is rising to new highs and inflation is 2%, you would probably say the market multiple is 30 or 40. I have never seen so many people whining about a recovery with GDP growth at 3% to 4%.

Q: So why is the stock market still stumbling?
A: There are two things that are happening: One, this market has become the Ohio Art Market.

Q: As in the company that makes the Etch-a-Sketch? Explain that.
A: The Etch-a-Sketch analogy is based on the fact that there is a lot of marginal trading being done on a day-to-day basis by people that go to bed at night without any ideas in their head. They are blank screens, and the first story they hear is the story of the day and they trade on it. Everybody keeps focusing on bad news everyday. They don't realize that all the recoveries in the past 22 years -- since I've been in the business -- have all looked like this. It takes 5 or 6 months before anybody believes the recovery is real. The other problem, and it makes this recession a little bit different from others, is that it is hitting people east of the Hudson -- and the Northeast is where the money is managed and the media is based, and so things seem worse than they are.