Replies to post #137995 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

Public Severe Weather Outlook

[F6 comment -- this is a scary setup; things could get really ugly -- today's a good day to try and make sure that anyone, any family and friends, in or near the High or Moderate Risk will not procrastinate and will instead promptly seek shelter if and as any threatening weather approaches from midday today through tonight]

    ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL 
    WOUS40 KWNS 270923 
    ALZ000-GAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-271800- 
     
    PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK   
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
    0423 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 
     
    ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER 
    PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST US THIS AFTERNOON AND 
    TONIGHT... 
     
    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE 
    DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER 
    PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST US THIS AFTERNOON AND 
    TONIGHT. 
     
    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE 
     
           NORTHERN ALABAMA 
           FAR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA 
           NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI 
           SOUTHERN TENNESSEE 
     
    ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE LOWER GREAT 
    LAKES REGION AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF 
    COAST STATES. 
     
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER 
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM 
    SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORMS 
    WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND 
    SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS 
    DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. STORMS 
    WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN...MIDDLE 
    ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 
    HOURS. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR 
    MASS...THEY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 
    STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND 
    WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. 
     
    THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR 
    NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN 
    TENNESSEE. A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR 
    THESE AREAS. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY EXPAND THIS AREA TO INCLUDE 
    PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO 
    EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. 
     
    STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY 
    VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO 
    REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO 
    RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE 
    WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. 
     
    ..COHEN.. 04/27/2011 
     
    $$

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

---

Experimental Multimedia Briefing in MP4 Format
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4


===


Apr 27, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook




Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.


Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.


Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html