Zeev...
In the short (no pun intended) time I have been on this thread, I have noticed the same thing - when you ride your fully loaded positions into a downtrend, you have always recovered and the market turned to the upside although sometimes the turn came a bit late and you first had to undergo some short term pain. I have nothing but respect for your abilities to time the market, which is far better than most. The same may happen this time, but the two possibilities that I see for a rally here are based on neither fundamentals nor technicals and are not the kind of things that I would want to bet on.
First, seasonality is in your favor with the Christmas holidays traditionally one of the most reliably favorable times of the year for the markets. I would point out, though, that as I have noted a number of times here this bear is very different from all the markets that I have been through in my trading career (since early 70's), and that includes several bear markets. One of the hallmarks of this bear is that it tends to go against those normal patterns when they are most expected and touted (as now) and for myself, the better play has been to fade them than to bet on them.
Second, and probably your best hope, is intervention and support by the Fed/PPT, who obviously desires a stronger market and has shown a willingness to do all it can to achieve that goal. In a lighter volume market, as is almost always the case during the holiday season, they have a reasonably good chance of holding the market up for a while longer. Without their support, though, I think the back of the recent bear market rally has been broken and we head lower from here. Even with their support, I seriously doubt that new highs can be made, and view a targe above 1600 NAZ as improbable. That said, they have taught me to respect their ability and willingness to accomplish their goals, so as a bear I fear/respect them as I would a wild grizzly in the woods.
Again, I very much respect your opinions and trading acumen even though from time to time we disagree on the big picture and thus our approach to the markets. Perhaps things will turn out in such a way that we are both wrong <gg>. I am by far most comfortable as a bull trading good markets, and look forward to the time when we both find ourselves in agreement while trading a new bull market. Unfortunately, other than for short term bear rallies, I do not foresee that happening for a pretty long time.
Take care and good luck.
mlsoft
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