Replies to post #118801 on Biotech Values

[groesl]

Dew,

What do you think ABT is worth today? What's a fair multiple to assign to the business?

Thanks,

[DewDiligence]

FDA approves ABT’s ‘low-volume’ Androgel:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Abbott-Receives-US-FDA-prnews-4200533928.html?x=0&.v=1

ABT obtained the Androgel franchise in the 2009 Solvay acquisition. Because it has annualized sales of less than $500M, ABT does not disclose the exact sales figures.

[DewDiligence]

ABT ReadMeFirst

[Humira hits primary endpoint in ulcerative colitis;
FDA approves ‘low volume’ Androgel;
bearish musings on TriCor/TriLipix from Forbes.]



Finances, outlook, and valuation
#msg-62372143 Forward P/E is only 11x based on 2011 EPS guidance
#msg-61383188 Investors overplay JAK threat to Humira
#msg-61658082 ABT is undervalued, says Barron’s
#msg-62371726 1Q11 sales of top products and franchises
#msg-60102300 ABT hikes dividend for 39th consecutive year!
#msg-32844386 New $5B buyback authorization
#msg-34774636 ABT’s M&A track record is second to none (Jan 2009)



Durable Growth segment
#msg-62371582 ABT’s 1Q11 sales in emerging markets grew 38%
#msg-61699995 Drug sales in emerging markets: $400B in 2020 (IMS)
#msg-50473238 India’s fake drugs are a real problem
#msg-61960541 Branded generics in emerging markets—connecting the dots
#msg-62037218 More on branded generics (Forbes)
#msg-62371726 1Q11 sales of top products and franchises

#msg-41922225 Solvay acquisition (Sep 2009)
#msg-50436738 Piramal acquisition (May 2010)
#msg-50022514 Zydus Cadila acquisition (May 2010)



Proprietary Pharma segment
#msg-62371726 1Q11 sales of top products and franchises
#msg-61383188 Pipeline overview (Apr 2011)

#msg-61383188 Investors overplay JAK threat to Humira
#msg-62953768 Humira hit primary endpoint in ulcerative colitis
#msg-61989536 Antibodies against Humira are no big deal
#msg-39417561 Size and segments of US market for RA

#msg-28510348 Heart disease: Not about cholesterol?
#msg-43586320 Niaspan bests Zetia in ARBITER 6–HALT study
#msg-62207709 Capsule summary of TriCor ACCORD study
#msg-62591674 Bearish musings on TriCor/TriLipix (Forbes)
#msg-51992958 Does TriCor prevent diabetic retinopathy?
#msg-34203456 FDA approves TriLipix (Dec 2008)
#msg-33503193 TriLipix + statin 1-year combo data

#msg-54747777 ABT licenses Reata’s Bardoxolone for CKD
#msg-56946507 Phase-2b Bardoxolone data
#msg-50509176 Daclizumab starts phase-3 in MS
#msg-57504180 Phase-2 Elotuzumab Data in MM
#msg-51343858 ABT licenses NBIX’s Elagolix for endometriosis
#msg-62599720 FDA approves ‘low volume’ Androgel
#msg-61757048 Multi-pronged program in HCV
#msg-52406597 Nuke-sparing HIV program (Kaletra+Isentress)
#msg-58794717 ABT withdraws BLA/MAA for Briakinumab

#msg-47606240 Facet Biotech acquisition (Mar 2010)
#msg-43510907 Anti-NGF mAb for pain (Nov 2009)
#msg-14553895 Kos acquisition (Nov 2006)



Innovative Devices segment
#msg-62371726 1Q11 sales of top products and franchises
#msg-62371809 Drug-eluting-stent sales grow 44% ex-US in 1Q11
#msg-39762286 DES US/global market shares (2Q09)
#msg-54841998 Xience continues to best Taxus in SPIRIT IV
#msg-41731638 Xience blows away Taxus at three years in SPIRIT III
#msg-54842212 Xience crushes Taxus Liberté at 2 years
#msg-38097301 Xience shines in hard-to-treat subgroups
#msg-38985789 EU approves Xience Prime (Jun 2009)
#msg-45262545 Xience approved in Japan (Jan 2010)
#msg-41529862 Xience approved in China (Sep 2009)

#msg-61503095 WSJ profiles Absorb (Mar 2011)
#msg-61809155 1-year Absorb data are impressive
#msg-58615702 EU approves first bioresorbable stent

#msg-34762429 AMO acquisition (Jan 2009)
#msg-41143330 Visiogen acquisition (Sep 2009)
#msg-41374735 Evalve acquisition (Sep 2009)
#msg-34244326 Ibis Biosciences acquisition (Dec 2008)

#msg-40949294 Cancer-biomarker collaboration with PFE
#msg-39511634 Cancer-biomarker collaboration with GSK



Legal and miscellaneous
#msg-60237946 ABT wins Humira litigation vs JNJ (Feb 2011)
#msg-58671882 ABT wins Humira litigation vs Bayer (Jan 2011)
#msg-61547460 ABT prevails in Norvir litigation vs GSK (Mar 2011)
#msg-44080721 ABT, Teva settle TriCor patent case (Dec 2009)
#msg-37562781 ABT sues JNJ on Simponi patent (May 2009)