While Lincoln was certainly a "little guy", it's silly to go back that far and I agree with your main point, the educated moderate Republicans are turning in their graves at the idiocy of the new group: Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, Christine O'Donnell, it goes on and on.
Where did the sea change really begin? Since it's the time of my most active political advocacy, I'll have to go with the 1960's and specifically, the infamous Southern Strategy.
This is a very old, very long article but well-worth reading:
Nixon's Southern strategy 'It's All In the Charts' By JAMES BOYD New York Times (1857-Current file); May 17, 1970;
The genius (some would say evil genius) behind the strategy, Kevin Phillips, one time special assistant to the infamous Attorney General John Mitchell, told the the Republican Party that there was an opportunity to polarize the Southern voting, after seeing the Democrat Party fill with black votes. By standing for the idea of 'state-rights,' without being totally against integration, Phillips hoped to attract anti-black whites to vote Republican. He succeeded beyond his wildest dreams.
In the article I've cited, Phillips says: "The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are.."
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