Replies to post #118585 on Biotech Values

[10nisman]

It is just back of the napkin, but taking out $16 million per quarter as expenses MNTA is gaining about $55 million a quarter at this rate. That is over $200 million in net cash for 2011, meaning that MNTA should exit 2011 with over $400 million in cash and equivalents (including a/r). Market cap is $879 million, giving enterprise value of $479 million at end of 2011 which is about 2x fcf. If lovenox market becomes less "speculative" vis a vie Teva the share price has to soar. If copaxone is approved the share price has to zoom, and by zoom, talking multiples higher, not just 25, 50%, or even 100%, but by multiples with this sort of cash flow....

Exactly. The market is slowly pricing in the value of sole generic mL however considering MNTA may have greater than $8+/sh in net cash and A/R at December 31, 2011, the share price has a good ways to go. In addition, the market price has virtually zero value priced in for mC, m118, m402, etc.. FDA Approval of mC could be worth a 150-200% increase in today's share price considering it validates MNTA technical abilities, gives it another significant cash flow stream and opens the door to very lucrative partnerships or potential buyout.

Anyone - know of any other MNTA potential like investments (doesn't have to be biotech)? Something in the small-mid cap space with good free cash flow that the world is mispricing? TIA.

[IB2011]

DD,

I've been working on a valuation model of Momenta. What you've posted here is really helpful.

What are your projections for tax rates going forward on a quarterly basis?

Also, what will Momenta do with that $400 million in cash at the end of the year. Any chance of a partial share buyback?

Thanks,

IB