Dew, thanks for sharing the information and your hard work for this board.
This explains the difference (22 M) between the forecast of my little model (225 M) and the NVS-Number. If i recall correct, than you expected several weeks ago a run rate of 900 M. If you look at the increase of the script # for M-enox of 40 % from Jan to March and assume, that the two new GPO-Contracts (the one has, as reported from sodrock, a volume of 120 M p. year) increase the M-enox revenue from the GPOs of 30 %, than there will be a (weightened) increase of 33 % for the run rate to 1,2 B. Meanwhile the overall weekly script # increase from 56000 (jan) to 61000 (apr), so that i think, we reached 1,3 B.
But, if 1 B or 1,3 B run rate, this is not relevant. Important is from my point of view, that the business modell from MNTA will be proved. Today it is not. The negative from the TEVA-overhang is not, that the future revenue from M-enox will be sink drastically. The problem is, that a T-enox can fail MNTAs business model.
This based, as i understand, of two assumptions:
1. There is, besides the technicals, also a economic difference between biosimilars and interchangeables. Doctors hesitate to prescripe generic biologicals, which are not declared as interchangeable (look at europe). Biosimilars will not be a economic sucess.
2. The FDA differ between biosimilars and interchangeables and (important) set a very high bar for interchangeables.
If now a little firm from italy with little investment costs and little know how can reach the status of interchangeability for large scale molecules as lovenox, then MNTA abilities has no great economic value not only for lovenox, but also for the FOB area. This explains the actual share price.
Therefore, also the FOB laws from the FDA are very important for MNTA. I hope the law is so, that it is focus of the intercangeability and set a high bar. Then MNTA has with its abilities a unique selling proposition
Excuse my bad english and the long text.
Happy eastern
Katsche
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