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c70

04/14/11 11:42 PM

#99313 RE: supermegadope #99312

How many day's left before we can start the 90day countdown by DSU ?
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downsideup

04/15/11 4:08 PM

#99326 RE: supermegadope #99312

Just a quibble, perhaps, but, no, it doesn't mean they "sold to the wrong person"... it just means that, for whatever reason, someone was just a bit too willing to sell shares when they shouldn't have sold at that "too low" price, as selling when the "market" price is well below known value, or selling too willingly when they shouldn't have been nearly that willing.

Market price is always about "willingness" of sellers... or the balance between the willingness of buyers and sellers... and not only about value, and not about who the market participants are. And, of course, it is about changes in the trends in those things, too... and the reasons for changes in trends, etc.

For SRSR, the trends in niobium usage matter, the trends in commodities valuations matter, and market trends in how other actors are addressing their future needs matters. When is the right time to buy long undervalued assets ? When there is change occurring, that makes the new trend your best friend. I'd not ignore changes in market trends that are more specific... so that a change in "trend" from trading on the pinks, to trading on some other exchange... probably matters, etc.

Awareness of value and change in trends... DOES tend to modify my willingness... and accelerating change in awareness of value and trends... accelerates change in my willingness. There are many factors that come in to play in changing awareness.

At SRSR, what I see is volume that is drying up because there really isn't very much willingness on the part of sellers to sell shares, now, or at any price that is remotely close to the current price. That is certainly true of me... and I expect what I'm thinking isn't a lot different from what a lot of others who own SRSR shares might be thinking.

In spite of some of the obviously postured or feigned ignorance about it here, the "value" question here really isn't that much of a mystery. SRSR has a very large value under tow at Nemegosenda, and shares are trading for a mere fraction of the per share value of that asset.

That value is much larger than the current share price... and the company clearly knows what that value is, knows how to proceed in having that value be recognized, and has undertaken efforts in planning to have that value BE realized in due course, through means which really have nothing at all to do with the market functions driving the price in the daily trade in SRSR shares. Those plans, it appears, are proceeding apace... and we have every reason to expect they will succeed in FORCING proper recognition of value... that isn't being properly recognized by the market now.

I think that we see a growing lack of willingness on the part of sellers because most market participants here appear to fully understand the dynamic in the market function that is occurring here... and understand that it isn't one that is particularly useful for them, given buyers who are "posing" as unwilling to pay a fair price... when at least some of the "buyers" here really don't have much of a choice to make about their own future participation... other than in timing. They WILL be buyers, willing or not, whatever the price is, at or prior to the point where either the STGC or Nio-star spin outs are executed...

Looks to me like there are some number of buyers in the market here who actually HAVE to buy shares... and they'll be required to buy them at whatever the price is at that point where the requirement to buy is required to be fulfilled. They may posture as being "unwilling"... because they think doing that will get them the ability to buy those shares they HAVE to buy at a less than fair price. So, we're seeing a standoff develop... as sellers become FAR less willing... while, the willingness of some buyers is FIXED... and it will remain fixed... no matter what happens in price.

Given unwilling sellers, or sellers with a keen enough eye for value, and a bit more patience tied to understanding how the market function works... given sellers who are unwilling to sell at prices well below value, or who are simply unwilling to participate in a dysfunctional market that isn't delivering a proper judgment re the relationship between price and value ?

Here, the impact of that is pretty easy to parse, because we have a fairly clear path, and a fairly clear time line... on which we can expect to see changes occurring in those things that are VERY likely to impose dramatic changes in the relationship between price and value. The company seems to be fully aware of the market situation, and, with their advisers, they are taking steps to create "recognition events" that will very likely correct share prices to reflect something very much nearer to the real value.

I've seen that happen before, in other stocks, and I like the idea of that sort of change at SRSR a lot... and, I'm going to hold onto every single one of my shares to see what happens when those efforts succeed... as it seems they certainly will.

The market factors that are beginning to matter now, IMO, are that sellers are VERY aware they're likely to benefit a WHOLE lot more from simply waiting for the company to execute the plans they're discussing with us... as executing those plans appears it will be quite likely to generate a far more favorable set of market conditions... in the very near future.

Markets do tend to "settle" eventually at prices that DO recognize value that exists... which, as dolphinTom pointed out, doesn't ever mean that markets don't see some fairly wild excursions in the deviations between price and value. Those deviations happen... and occasionally happen as a function of purposeful effort to make them happen, and as a result of effort to sustain the dislocations. Still, buy low... when value is under-priced... and, be patient... selling only when the value is properly priced. That is... buy low, sell high... and make $$$.

If I offer to buy your new car from you for $5, and conspire with others to share the benefit of refusing to pay more ? The fact mine is the only or "best" bid or offer you have... still isn't very likely to convince you to be willing... given you have many other market based options to sell to others, or, more likely, you will just decide to not sell ? That choice is always available, but the availability of that choice to market participants is often LESS apparently true in the stock market than in others. One of the ways to defeat that sort of market cabal, or simple market dysfunction, in the stock market... is to re-direct the focus on transactions... to other markets. SRSR is doing that... on more than one front. Those efforts they are making now WILL create recognition events... and those events WILL force a proper recognition of value in the price of a share... and they'll accomplish that in markets that can't be controlled or manipulated by "pink sheet" stock manipulators.

For me... that means it would be stupid to sell shares NOW for anything less than I think they are worth... given I think they'll be able to be sold for a lot more, soon.

"Come tomorrow you cant try to sell your shares for what they are WORTH to you..."

LOL!!! Hogwash. I can. And, I don't have to sell them... and I sure as hell don't have to sell any TOMORROW for much less than the shares are WORTH... knowing that a little bit of patience will force buyers to pay a fair price.

Right now... I can refuse to sell my shares for less than they are worth... and can, and will, continue to refuse to sell them for anything less than they are worth... at least until the price properly reflects the FACT of known value.

BUYERS... cannot FORCE sellers to sell, at any price, or at any particular time. Given the structure and functions of the market we have, the opposite is not quite as true... as some future buyers have already purchased a fixed REQUIREMENT to buy... at any price.

Whatever the extent of the short position is... less volume that continues shrinking... ensures it will not be covered at lower prices.

So... what is the value, and what are the factors that are changing that will alter awareness of value ?

Some here ( LOL!!!) are still posturing that there is ZERO value in SRSR shares, because there is ZERO value in the resource they own...

Meanwhile, SRSR is clearly enough working toward delivering "recognition events" that will dramatically alter that flawed awareness that (purposefully) mistakes what some see as "billions of $" in value... as "worth nothing" ? Pink sheets stocks are famous for being manipulated that way, of course, but, the stock market is not the only valuation tool that exists...

I've addressed that before, as here, in a post from January:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59011697

What the resource IS worth is also a moving target, with a couple of different components controlling how that value will be determined, with those things also having been moving targets, recently.

First, work done in advancing the exploration matters... as the result of the work done alters perceptions of what the resource is, and what it is worth... at least, it will have that potential at the point where full disclosure is made.

Then, changes in the rules alter definitions that define some of what that changed perception resulting from exploration activities is likely to be. Recent changes in 43-101 have now fixed many of the definitions that matter, to be what others say they are: http://www.cim.org/committees/cimdefstds_dec11_05.pdf

Other changes in 43-101 also matter in altering what the market will probably consider in valuing mineral resources:

http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/uploadedFiles/securitieslaw/policy4/43-101%5BNIBlacklineAdvanceNotice%5D_2011.pdf

What is the SRSR property at Nemegosenda worth... and what does that mean in terms of the value of a share ?

To answer that most clearly, you'd need to have all the information SRSR has... the results of recent exploration, knowing what they mean in context... while also knowing what full disclosure would enable in valuation, in the context of the recently changed rules... and in the context in which "recognition events" are going to occur...

That context includes market alternatives... so, it might be useful to consider making comparisons with similar resources, noting the RELATIVE differences that exist in them:

http://www.niocan.com/content.asp?SectionID=9

Note, in that link, what they say about the Niocan "reserves":

"Considering the fact that the company does not currently hold a Certificate of Authorization (CA) from the MSDEP nor an (ed.) updated feasibility study, it cannot, since the coming into force of NI 43-101 in 2001, refer to ‘’mineral reserves’’ without including the appropriate warnings to indicate that this constitutes an historical estimate."

LOL!!! Who'd a thunk it. Looks like SRSR's PRESENT situation is very comparable... at least in terms of that specific re the resources... although I think SRSR's deposit has vastly better economics, given lower cost open pit access to the deposits, etc.

I think it is true that "pink sheets" stock prices for SRSR shares today... are NOT what will control recognition of the FACT of the value contained in and controlled by those shares in the near future.

JMHO