Replies to post #118170 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA—The competing product Jim Roach mentioned is the one from Regado Biosciences. See #msg-55640856 and follow the Reply chain.

p.s. I'm not concerned about SNY's launching an authorized generic.

[zipjet]

Obviously they are trying to signal SNY. But as the numbers keep going up at what percent (of total US revenue) would one theorize it makes sense for SNY to come out with an AG.

First question is whether you are going to run out the numbers as a pure profit maximization problem. If so, SNY would compare the profits they make with just two entrants to what they would make by launching an AG. The AG should be able to split the pharmacy channel with MNTA but likely launches initially at a discount to current mL pricing. That not only reduces the revenues of the pharmacy channel but the institutional channel as well since institutions will negotiate for additional discounts.

But what if SNY fears the mythical* tL launch and wants to front run it. Then they may launch earlier than otherwise justified to hopefully gain and hold an advantage over clearly-inferior* tL.

I favor the first case. Without making a series of assumptions and running them (I am too lazy to do that) I would venture a guess that MNTA can take 60% of market revenue before SNY would consider launching an AG. The further they take market share beyond that the greater the chance of an AG.

The scripts at 84% are nothing short of great this fast in the launch.

Hope DD is right and Teva fails to get tL approved and mC launches soon. :-)

ij


* Descriptors offered for DD.