Japan rattled by another 7.1-magnitude aftershock, warning for 3-foot (1-meter) tsunami issued By Associated Press, Monday, April 11, 4:54 AM
SENDAI, Japan — A strong earthquake rattled Japan’s northeast Monday and sparked a fresh tsunami alert on the one-month anniversary of the massive temblor and wave that devastated the northeastern coast and unleashed a still-unfolding nuclear crisis.
Photos .. the first one .. (/The Associated Press) - Japanese men make their way through the flooded street at an area devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in the port town of Kesennuma, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, Monday, April 11, 2011. Exactly a month ago today a massive earthquake and tsunami ravaged Japan’s northeastern coastal region. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev)
The 7.1-magnitude aftershock briefly forced Tokyo’s main international airport to close both of its runways. The epicenter was just inland and about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of Tokyo. The operator of the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex said the latest quake had no impact on the plant.
A warning was issued for a three-foot (one-meter) tsunami, the same as for after an aftershock that shook the northeast coast last week. That quake generated no tsunami.
People at a large electronics store in the northeastern city of Sendai screamed and ran outside, though the shaking made it hard to move around. Mothers grabbed their children, and windows shook. After a minute or two, people returned to the store.
There were no new reports of damage. Aftershocks have repeatedly rattled the disaster-weary region, but there is little left in the northeast to ruin. Last Thursday’s 7.1-magnitude aftershock, which had been the strongest tremor since the day the original quake hit, did sink hundreds of thousands more households into darkness, however. Most of that electricity has been restored.
The 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the tsunami it generated on March 11 are believed to have killed more than 25,000 people and caused as much as $310 billion in damage. The nuclear power plant they disabled has been spewing radiation since, and even a month on, officials say they don’t know how long it will take to cool reactors there.
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA, Associated Press – Sun Apr 10, 11:29 pm ET
OFUNATO, Japan – There are no cars inside the parking garage at Ofunato police headquarters. Instead, hundreds of dented metal safes, swept out of homes and businesses by last month's tsunami, crowd the long rectangular building.
Any one could hold someone's life savings.
Safes are washing up along the tsunami-battered coast, and police are trying to find their owners — a unique problem in a country where many people, especially the elderly, still stash their cash at home. By one estimate, some $350 billion worth of yen doesn't circulate.
In this March 31, 2011 photo, A centuries-old tablet that warns of danger of tsunamis stands in the hamlet of Aneyoshi, Iwate Prefecture, northern Japan. Hundreds of such markers dot the coastline, some more than 600 years old. Collectively they form a crude warning system for Japan, whose long coasts along major fault lines have made it a repeated target of earthquakes and tsunamis over the centuries. By: AP Photo/Vincent Yu [much larger version of this photo, showing all detail of the inscriptions on the stone, at http://washingtonexaminer.com/files/4e424c84bc93a607e90e6a706700e7ae_1.jpg ]
By: JAY ALABASTER Associated Press 04/06/11 11:37 AM
Modern sea walls failed to protect coastal towns from Japan's destructive tsunami last month. But in the hamlet of Aneyoshi, a single centuries-old tablet saved the day.
"High dwellings are the peace and harmony of our descendants," the stone slab reads. "Remember the calamity of the great tsunamis. Do not build any homes below this point."
It was advice the dozen or so households of Aneyoshi heeded, and their homes emerged unscathed from a disaster that flattened low-lying communities elsewhere and killed thousands along Japan's northeastern shore.
Hundreds of such markers dot the coastline, some more than 600 years old. Collectively they form a crude warning system for Japan, whose long coasts along major fault lines have made it a repeated target of earthquakes and tsunamis over the centuries.
The markers don't all indicate where it's safe to build. Some simply stand — or stood, until they were washed away by the tsunami — as daily reminders of the risk. "If an earthquake comes, beware of tsunamis," reads one. In the bustle of modern life, many forgot.
More than 12,000 people have been confirmed dead and officials fear the number killed could rise to 25,000 from the March 11 disaster. More than 100,000 are still sheltering in schools and other buildings, almost a month later. A few lucky individuals may move into the first completed units of temporary housing this weekend.
Workers at the tsunami-damaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power complex finally halted a leak of radioactive water into the Pacific on Wednesday, but it may take months to bring the overheating reactors under control.
A natural disaster as large as last month's 9.0 earthquake and tsunami happens perhaps once in a person's lifetime, at most. Tokyo Electric Power Co., the nuclear plant operator, clearly wasn't prepared. Many communities built right to the water's edge, some taking comfort, perhaps, in sea walls built after a deadly but smaller tsunami in 1960.
Many did escape, fleeing immediately after the quake. In some places, it was a matter of minutes. Others who tarried, perished.
"People had this crucial knowledge, but they were busy with their lives and jobs, and many forgot," said Yotaru Hatamura, a scholar who has studied the tablets.
One stone marker warned of the danger in the coastal city of Kesennuma: "Always be prepared for unexpected tsunamis. Choose life over your possessions and valuables."
Tetsuko Takahashi, 70, safe in her hillside house, watched from her front window as others ignored that advice. She saw a ship swept a half-mile (nearly a kilometer) inland, crushing buildings in its path.
"After the earthquake, people went back to their homes to get their valuables and stow their 'tatami' floor mats. They all got caught," she said.
Her family has lived in Kesennuma for generations, but she said those that experienced the most powerful tsunamis died years ago. She can only recall the far weaker one in 1960, generated by an earthquake off Chile.
Earlier generations also left warnings in place names, calling one town "Octopus Grounds" for the sea life washed up by tsunamis and naming temples after the powerful waves, said Fumihiko Imamura, a professor in disaster planning at Tohoku University in Sendai, a tsunami-hit city.
"It takes about three generations for people to forget. Those that experience the disaster themselves pass it to their children and their grandchildren, but then the memory fades," he said.
The tightly knit community of Aneyoshi, where people built homes above the marker, was an exception.
"Everybody here knows about the markers. We studied them in school," said Yuto Kimura, 12, who guided a recent visitor to one near his home. "When the tsunami came, my mom got me from school and then the whole village climbed to higher ground."
Aneyoshi, part of the city of Miyako, has been battered repeatedly by tsunamis, including a huge one in 1896. Isamu Aneishi, 69, said his ancestors moved their family-run inn to higher ground more than 100 years ago.
But his three grandchildren were at an elementary school that sat just 500 feet (150 meters) from the water in Chikei, a larger town down the winding, cliffside road. The school and surrounding buildings are in ruins. The bodies of his grandchildren have not been found.
Farther south, the tsunami washed away a seven-foot (two-meter) tall stone tablet that stood next to a playground in the middle of the city of Natori. Its message was carved in giant Japanese characters: "If an earthquake comes, beware of tsunamis."
That didn't stop some people from leaving work early after the earthquake, some picking up their children at school en route, to check the condition of their homes near the coast.
Many didn't make it out alive. More than 820 bodies have been found in Natori, some stuck in the upper branches of trees after the water receded. Another 1,000 people are still missing.
Hiroshi Kosai grew up in Natori but moved away after high school. His parents, who remained in the family home, died in the disaster.
"I always told my parents it was dangerous here," said the 43-year-old Kosai, as he pointed out the broken foundation where the tablet once stood. "In five years, you'll see houses begin to sprout up here again."
ISHINOMAKI, Miyagi--Local residents have described their horror at seeing primary school children being swept away by tsunami on March 11.
About 70 percent of the 108 students enrolled at Okawa Primary School in Ishinomaki were killed or have been missing since the quake-triggered tsunami hit.
The children were evacuating as a group to higher ground when they were engulfed by a wave that roared up the Kitakamigawa river.
The school is located on the banks of the river--the largest river in the Tohoku region--in the Kamaya district of the city, about four kilometers from where the river flows into Oppa Bay.
According to the Ishinomaki municipal board of education, 64 of the school's students died, and 10 are missing. Nine of the 11 teachers who were at the school on the day died, and one is missing.
Decision time
Shortly after the earthquake hit at 2:46 p.m., the students left the school building, led by their teachers. The principal was not at the school at the time.
Some of the children were wearing helmets and classroom slippers. A number of parents had arrived at the school to collect their kids, and some of the children clung to their mothers, crying and wanting to rush home, according to witnesses.
At 2:49 p.m., a tsunami warning was issued. The disaster-prevention manual issued by the municipal government simply says to go to higher ground in case of tsunami--choosing an actual place is left up to each individual school.
Teachers discussed what action to take. Broken glass was scattered through the school building, and there was concern the building might collapse during aftershocks. The mountain to the rear of the school was too steep for the children to climb.
The teachers decided to lead the students to the Shin-Kitakami Ohashi bridge, which was about 200 meters west of the school and higher than the nearby river banks.
Horrific sight
A 70-year-old man who was near the school saw students leaving the school grounds, walking in a line. "Teachers and frightened-looking students were passing by right in front of me," he said.
At that moment, an awful roar erupted. A huge torrent of water had flooded the river and broken its banks, and was now rushing toward the school.
The man began to run toward the mountain behind the school--the opposite direction from where the students were heading.
According to the man and other residents, the water swept up the line of children, from front to back.
Some teachers and students at the rear of the line turned and ran toward the mountain. Some of them escaped the tsunami, but dozens could not.
Disaster-scenario projections had estimated that, if a tsunami were to occur as a result of an earthquake caused by movement along the two faults off Miyagi Prefecture, water at the river mouth would rise by five meters to 10 meters, and would reach a height of less than one meter near the primary school.
However, the March 11 tsunami rose above the two-story school building's roof, and about 10 meters up the mountain to the rear.
At the base of the bridge, which the students and teachers had been trying to reach, tsunami knocked power poles and street lights to the ground.
"No one thought tsunami would even reach this area," residents near the school said.
According to the local branch office of the municipal government, only one radio evacuation warning was issued.
The branch office said 189 people--about one-quarter of all residents in the Kamaya district--were killed or are missing. Some were engulfed by tsunami after going outdoors to observe the drama; others were killed inside their homes.
Shattered parents
In all of Miyagi Prefecture, 135 primary school students were killed in the March 11 disasters, according to the prefectural board of education. More than 40 percent of those children were students at Okawa Primary School.
A body believed to be that of one of the school's missing students was found on Friday.
Many parents are still searching the area near the school for clues to their children's whereabouts.
In response to parents' desire to know more about what happened on the day, an information meeting was held at Iinogawa No. 1 Primary School, near Okawa Primary School, on Saturday. A total of 97 relatives of dead or missing students and teachers attended the meeting.
Teruyuki Kashiba, principal of Okawa Primary School, and a male teacher who was the only one of the 11 teachers working that day to survive, explained the events of March 11.
At first, the plan was that only Kashiba would speak, but the teacher volunteered to address the room. "I'd like to explain things personally to the parents," he said at the meeting, according to witnesses.
The meeting began with all attendants offering a silent prayer.
Yoshimasa Konno, secretariat chief of the municipal board of education, said: "We're very sorry for losing so many precious lives at the school, where safety should be assured. We apologize for our inability to do more for bereaved family members."
Masanobu Shishikura wrote in August about a likely tsunami. Peter Landers/The Wall Street Journal
By PETER LANDERS APRIL 9, 2011
The giant tsunami that assaulted northern Japan's coast surprised just about everyone. But Masanobu Shishikura was expecting it. The thought that came to mind, he says, was "yappari," a Japanese word meaning roughly, "Sure enough, it happened."
"It was the phenomenon just as I had envisioned it," says the 41-year-old geologist, who has now become the Japanese Cassandra.
Dr. Shishikura's studies of ancient earth layers persuaded him that every 450 to 800 years, colliding plates in the Pacific triggered waves that devastated areas around the modern city of Sendai, in Miyagi Prefecture, as well as in Fukushima Prefecture.
One early tsunami was known to historians. Caused by the 869 Jogan quake, its waves, according to one chronicle, killed 1,000 people. Dr. Shishikura had found strong evidence of a later tsunami in the same region, which probably took place between 1300 and 1600.
"We cannot deny the possibility that [such a tsunami] will occur again in the near future," he and colleagues wrote in August 2010. That article appeared in a journal published by the Active Fault and Earthquake Research Center in Tsukuba, the government-funded institute where Dr. Shishikura works.
He was beginning to spread the word. Plans were under way at his center to hand out maps so people would understand which areas were at risk. Dr. Shishikura had an appointment on March 23 to explain his research to officials in Fukushima.
Dr. Shishikura's boss at the center, Yukinobu Okamura, had even mentioned the results at a 2009 meeting of an official committee discussing the safety of nuclear-power plants. Dr. Okamura says the idea of beefing up tsunami preparedness didn't go anywhere.
At Dr. Shishikura's eighth-floor office, bookshelves and televisions crashed to the floor during the quake on March 11. He has found temporary office quarters one story below, where he discussed his unheeded warning. "It's unfortunate that it wasn't in time," he said. But he also felt vindicated after past slights, remembering the local official who didn't want to help him dig holes in the earth for research and who called the endeavor a "nuisance."
His work is part of a young field called paleoseismology. Kerry Sieh, a pioneer in the specialty, says that the few dozen people who do this kind of work are usually doomed to be ignored. Humans are made to trust what they have seen themselves, or what someone they know has seen. They aren't designed "to deal with these once-in-500-year events," says Dr. Sieh, formerly of the California Institute of Technology and now head of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
From his youth, Dr. Shishikura liked to collect fossils in the hills outside Tokyo. He says he realized in high school how geology could answer questions about the past.
His method is fairly simple. Miyagi Prefecture has rich soil, but sandwiched in it are layers of sand and pebbles that Dr. Shishikura says must have been carried from the shore by tsunamis. Looking at the layers allowed his group to estimate the rough dates of waves that struck as far back as 3,500 years ago.
Many lives could have been saved, at relatively little cost, by spreading awareness of the danger. People in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures were used to strong quakes, but the location and magnitude of these seismic events didn't generate tsunamis. Further north on the eastern coast, tsunamis were well-known from quakes in 1896 and 1933. Those were of yet another, weaker variety that affected mainly low-lying areas along the coast.
During the magnitude 9.0 quake on March 11, some people well inland, thinking themselves safe, took time to change clothes or to make phone calls. Others watched the disaster unfold instead of running to high ground. They proved what Dr. Shishikura's group wrote last year about local tsunamis: "It appears to be almost completely unknown among the general public that in the past great tsunamis have inundated areas as far as 3-4 kilometers inland as the result of earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8."
Now, Dr. Shishikura's team is looking at the Nankai trough to the south, which could trigger tsunamis hitting the island of Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula. Dr. Shishikura says large tsunamis appear to hit there every 400 to 600 years, with the most recent in 1707.
Those rough calculations suggest the danger is at least a century away. Still, Dr. Shishikura says, "we had better be on the lookout."
Prime Minister Naoto Kan's blood must have run cold around 10 p.m. on March 11, the day of the Great East Japan Earthquake, when he received the first report on the terrible situation at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.
The report from the Nuclear and Industry Safety Agency of the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry predicted reactor cores at the nuclear power plant--where power and all functions to cool the reactors were lost in the quake and tsunami--would be exposed to air, and that extreme heat generated by fuel rods would damage their encasing tubes later that night.
Fuel rods would melt down, and the following morning the pressure inside the reactors' containment vessels would reach the maximum allowed for by the facilities' designers, the report predicted.
Kan and everyone at the Prime Minister's Office understood the seriousness of the situation described by the report.
There were only two options that might prevent a meltdown of the reactors--either restore the plant's power supply and cooling functions immediately, or pour water directly into the reactors. If neither course of action could be taken, the pressure inside the reactors would become so great that they would be destroyed.
The report concluded that valves in the containment vessels would have to be opened, to release radioactive steam and reduce the pressure inside.
However, opening the valves was considered a last resort. Although it could prevent the reactors from breaking apart, it would release steam with high levels of radioactive materials into the atmosphere.
Such a step had never been taken at a nuclear power plant in Japan.
Countdown to power loss
The Prime Minister's Office, the nuclear safety agency and even Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator of the Fukushima plant, were filled with relief immediately after the earthquake. They had been told backup diesel generators would provide sufficient support to stabilize the Nos. 1 to 3 reactors, which were in operation when the quake hit.
However, subsequent tsunami destroyed 12 of the 13 emergency generators.
"Round up all the power-supply cars and send them to the plant right now!" shouted a TEPCO supervisor at the utility's head office in Tokyo.
Nuclear reactors have emergency cooling systems that channel water into the reactor, using a turbine that can be powered by residual heat. However, the systems rely on emergency batteries to power the water intake valves.
The emergency batteries at the Fukushima plant were expected to run out of power around midnight.
Options exhausted
TEPCO dispatched power-supply vehicles from various power stations around the country to the crippled nuclear plant. However, the vehicles had to travel very slowly because of damage to roads in northeastern Japan. The first power-supply car did not reach the plant until 9 p.m. on March 11.
Once at the site, the lack of preparation became apparent. Cables needed to connect the vehicles' high-voltage electricity to plant facilities were not long enough. TEPCO immediately ordered additional cables, but precious time had been wasted. Power would not be restored at the plant by midnight.
The pressure inside the containment vessels rose above the maximum allowed for by the facilities' design, and radiation levels at the plant increased sharply. No option was left but to open the valves.
Anger rose as TEPCO dithered
TEPCO began preparations for opening the valves around 7 p.m. on March 11. Pressure inside the No. 1 reactor was particularly high.
"Soon, the reactor won't be able to withstand the pressure," said an official of the accident headquarters at the plant, which was keeping in touch with TEPCO's head office via video phone. "We have to vent the pressure immediately."
"Pressure inside the containment vessel of the No. 1 reactor has gone up dramatically," the agency told Banri Kaieda, economy, trade and industry minister, at 12:45 a.m. on March 12. In fact, it had reached 1.5 times the designed maximum, meaning the condition of the reactor was critical.
"To get things under control, we have to pour water into the reactors and then vent the steam that is generated," Haruki Madarame, chairman of the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission, told Kaieda.
At 1:30 a.m. on March 12, Kan, Kaieda and Madarame gathered at the crisis management center in the basement of the Prime Minister's Office.
The three urged TEPCO officials to vent the steam as soon as possible. But TEPCO officials said there was no way of opening the valves because there was no power supply.
Exasperated, Kaieda called the utility's head office in Tokyo and the accident headquarters at the plant every hour, pressuring them to open the valves immediately.
TEPCO workers tried to open the valves by manually overriding the automatic system, but struggled to make progress because they had to work in darkness.
At dawn, pressure inside the No. 1 reactor was more than twice the designed maximum.
Eventually, at 6:50 a.m., the government ordered the utility to open the valves under the Nuclear Reactor Regulation Law.
When Kan visited the accident site shortly after 7 a.m. and found TEPCO had not opened the valves yet, he reprimanded company officials. The officials replied they would like to have another hour to make a decision on what to do.
Kan blew his stack.
"Now's not the time to make such lackadaisical comments!" the prime minister told the TEPCO officials.
Yet even still, the utility spent three more hours discussing the matter before finally opening the valves at 10:17 a.m.
Five hours after that, a hydrogen explosion occurred at the No. 1 reactor, blowing apart its outer building.
Japanese Declare Crisis at Level of Chernobyl APRIL 12, 2011 [...] The decision to upgrade formally the severity of the accident came a day after Japan broadened the 12-mile nuclear evacuation zone around the plant to include all or part of five towns and villages that housed tens of thousands of people before the disaster, a sign that officials now see the long-term risks as far higher than originally estimated. And the crisis appears far from over, with constant reminders that efforts to bring the crippled reactors under control are far from complete. Operator Tepco scrambled to keep reactors stable in the wake of another big earthquake Monday and a battery fire Tuesday morning, signs of how vulnerable the plant remains a month after the quake. [...] Japanese nuclear regulators determined that after the accident, the plant has likely released tens of thousands of terabecquerels—or a mind-boggling tens of thousands of trillions of becquerels—of radiation [F6 note - PER HOUR (at times), as read in multiple other sources] in the immediate area. That's a level that's been recorded only during the Chernobyl accident. [...] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703841904576256742249147126.html [with comments]
===
Japanese Officials on Defensive as Nuclear Alert Level Rises
A volunteer in Ofunato, Japan, cleaned photographs that were found in the tsunami debris. Toru Hanai/Reuters
A policeman watched colleagues prepare to transport a body by van in Minamisoma, Japan, on Thursday, inside a deserted nuclear evacuation zone. David Guttenfelder/Associated Press
Prime Minister Naoto Kan bowed to the national flag as he arrived Tuesday for a press conference at his residence in Tokyo. Franck Robichon/European Pressphoto Agency
By KEITH BRADSHER, HIROKO TABUCHI and ANDREW POLLACK Published: April 12, 2011
TOKYO — Japanese officials struggled through the day on Tuesday to explain why it had taken them a month to disclose large-scale releases of radioactive material in mid-March at a crippled nuclear power plant, as the government and an electric utility disagreed on the extent of continuing problems there.
The government announced Tuesday morning that it had raised its rating of the severity of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station to 7, the worst on an international scale, from 5. Officials said that the reactor had released one-tenth as much radioactive material as the Chernobyl accident in 1986, but still qualified as a 7 according to a complex formula devised by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Japan’s new assessment was based largely on computer models showing very heavy emissions of radioactive iodine and cesium from March 14 to 16, just after the earthquake and tsunami rendered the plant’s emergency cooling system inoperative. The nearly monthlong delay in acknowledging the extent of these emissions is a fresh example of confused data and analysis from the Japanese, and put the authorities on the defensive about whether they have delayed or blocked the release of information to avoid alarming the public.
Seiji Shiroya, a commissioner of Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission, an independent government panel that oversees the country’s nuclear industry, said that the government had delayed issuing data on the extent of the radiation releases because of concern that the margins of error had been large in initial computer models. But he also suggested a public policy reason for having kept quiet.
“Some foreigners fled the country even when there appeared to be little risk,” he said. “If we immediately decided to label the situation as Level 7, we could have triggered a panicked reaction.”
The Japanese media, which has a reputation for passivity but has become more aggressive in response to public unhappiness about the nuclear accident, questioned government leaders through the day about what the government knew about the accident and when it knew it.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan gave a nationally televised speech and press conference in the early evening to call for national rebuilding, but ended up defending his government’s handling of information about the accident.
“What I can say for the information I obtained — of course the government is very large, so I don’t have all the information — is that no information was ever suppressed or hidden after the accident,” he said. “There are various ways of looking at this, and I know there are opinions saying that information could have been disclosed faster. However, as the head of the government, I never hid any information because it was inconvenient for us.”
Junichi Matsumoto, a senior nuclear power executive from the plant’s operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, fanned public fears about radiation when he said at a separate news conference on Tuesday morning that the radiation release from Daiichi could, in time, surpass levels seen in 1986.
“The radiation leak has not stopped completely, and our concern is that it could eventually exceed Chernobyl,” Mr. Matsumoto said.
But Hidehiko Nishiyama, deputy director general of Japan’s nuclear regulator, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, said in an interview on Tuesday evening that he did not know how the company had come up with its estimate. “I cannot understand their position,” he said.
He speculated that Tokyo Electric was being “prudent and thinking about the worst-case scenario,” adding, “I think they don’t want to be seen as optimistic.”
Mr. Nishiyama said that his agency did not expect another big escape of radiation from Daiichi, saying that “almost all” the material that is going to escape has already come out. He said that the rate of radiation release had peaked in the early days after the March 11 earthquake, and that the rate of radiation had dropped by 90 percent since then.
The peak release in emissions of radioactive particles took place following hydrogen explosions at three reactors, as technicians desperately tried to pump in seawater to keep the uranium fuel rods cool, and bled radioactive gas from the reactors in order to make room for the seawater.
Mr. Nishiyama took pains to say — and other nuclear experts agreed — that the Japanese accident posed fewer health risks than Chernobyl.
In the Soviet-era accident at Chernobyl, a burning graphite reactor pushed radioactive particles high into the atmosphere and downwind across Europe. The Japanese accident has mostly produced radioactive liquid runoff into the ocean and low-altitude radioactive particles that have frequently blown out into the ocean and fallen into the water as well.
The Nuclear Safety Commission ordered the use of a computer model called Speedi — short for System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information — to calculate the amount of radiation released from the plant, said Mr. Shiroya, the commissioner on the safety agency, who is also the former director of the Research Reactor Institute at Kyoto University.
To use the model, scientists enter radiation measurements from various distances from a nuclear accident. The model produces an estimate of the radioactive material escaping at the source of the accident.
Speaking at a news conference, Mr. Shiroya said those calculations were complex, and it was only recently that researchers had been able to narrow down the amount to within an acceptable margin of error.
“At first, the calculations could have been off by digits,” Mr. Shiroya said. “It was only when there was certainty that the margin of error was within two to three times that we made an announcement,” he said, later adding, “I do not think that there was any delay.”
Even so, some people involved in the energy industry have been hearing about the results of the Speedi calculations for days. A senior executive said in a telephone interview on April 4 that he had been told that the Speedi model suggested that radioactive materials escaping the Daiichi complex were much higher than Japanese officials had publicly acknowledged, and perhaps as high as half of the releases from Chernobyl.
Mr. Nishiyama and Mr. Shiroya said separately on Tuesday that that estimate had been wrong. But their two government agencies also released different figures for the level of emissions so far, and there appeared to be a degree of supposition embedded in the numbers.
Mr. Nishiyama’s agency said that emissions totaled 370,000 terabecquerels; a terabecquerel is a trillion becquerels. The agency’s figure is 20 percent of the former Soviet Union’s official estimate of emissions from Chernobyl.
But most experts say that the true emissions from Chernobyl were 1.5 to 2.5 times as high as the Soviet Union acknowledged. Mr. Nishiyama’s agency appears to have assumed that true emissions from Chernobyl were twice the official figure, and so calculated that the current nuclear accident had released 10 percent as much as Chernobyl.
Mr. Nishiyama’s agency is part of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which promotes the use of nuclear power. Mr. Shiroya’s commission, which is independent from nuclear power operators and their equipment providers, issued an estimate that emissions totaled 630,000 terabecquerels.
Although Mr. Shiroya did not provide a comparison to Chernobyl, that works out to 34 percent of the official Soviet estimate of emissions and 17 percent of the unofficial higher estimate.
Mr. Shiroya also said there was a threefold margin for error involved. The outside estimates of total releases would range from as low as 6 percent to as high as 51 percent of the unofficial totals from Chernobyl.
Japan’s Reactors Still ‘Not Stable,’ U.S. Regulator Says
Gregory B. Jaczko, the chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, testified before a Senate committee on Tuesday. Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images
By MATTHEW L. WALD Published: April 12, 2011
WASHINGTON — The condition of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi reactors in Japan is “static,” but with improvised cooling efforts they are “not stable,” the chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission told a Senate committee [ http://www.fednews.com/transcript.htm?id=20110412t6383 ] on Tuesday.
“We don’t see significant changes from day to day,” the chairman, Gregory B. Jaczko, said, while adding that the risk of big additional releases gets smaller as each day passes.
Long-term regular cooling of the reactors has not been re-established, nor has a regular way of delivering water to the spent-fuel pools, he told the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. And when an aftershock hit the site and cut some offshore power supplies, he said, some pumps failed and cooling stopped for 50 minutes.
The situation is “not stable” and will remain so until “that kind of situation would be handled in a predictable manner,” he said.
Mr. Jaczko also offered a new theory about the cause of the explosions that destroyed the secondary containment structures of several of the reactors. The prevailing theory has been that hydrogen gas was created when the reactor cores overheated and filled with steam instead of water; the steam reacts with the metal, which turns into a powder and then gives off hydrogen.
The Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates the nuclear plant, intended to vent the excess steam as well as the hydrogen outside of the plant, but experts have suggested that when operators tried this, the vents ruptured, allowing the hydrogen to enter the secondary containments.
But Mr. Jaczko said Tuesday that the explosions in the secondary containments might have been caused by hydrogen created in the spent-fuel pools within those containments.
If true, that would mean that the introduction of hardened vents at reactors at nuclear plants in the United States — cited as an improvement that would prevent such an explosion from happening — would not in fact make any difference.
That theory also raises the possibility that it may be safer to move some of the spent fuel out of the pools in the containment structures and into dry storage, an idea that is attracting some support in Congress. Spent nuclear fuel must remain in water for the first five years or so to cool but can then can be stored in small steel-and-concrete silos with no moving parts.
The industry uses these “dry casks” only when its pools are full. And so far the regulatory commission has said that pool and cask storage are equally safe. Still, some industry executives would like to tap the Nuclear Waste Fund, federal money set aside for a permanent waste repository, to pay for cask storage, an idea that is also favored by some environmentalists.
Mr. Jaczko’s statement on the possible source of the hydrogen is the third big reversal in commission statements on the nuclear crisis at Fukushima.
Commission officials have also seemed less certain after stating that the spent-fuel pool in the No. 4 reactor was empty or close to empty, a situation that was evidently the basis for recommending a 50-mile evacuation for Americans in the plant’s vicinity. Commission experts also said that radiation readings suggested that core material had slipped out of the vessel of the No. 2 reactor and entered a drywell in the primary containment, only to retreat again on whether that was in fact the case.
Mr. Jaczko also signaled that the regulatory commission itself was shifting from an extreme alert mode to a more sustainable long-term effort to monitor Japan’s crisis. Staffing in the commission’s round-the-clock emergency center at its headquarters in Rockville, Md., has been reduced, he said, with many staff members returning to their regular duties but available for consultation when events warrant.
He drew praise from the committee’s chairwoman, Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, but criticism as well. She is seeking an especially high level of scrutiny for two twin-reactor plants in her state, the only ones that the commission says are in zones of high seismic activity. Mr. Jaczko said that all reactors were being evaluated.
She countered by saying that those two plants, Diablo Canyon and San Onofre, were at the highest risk. Mr. Jaczko said they were not, explaining that they were designed with the earthquake risk in mind and that risks to American plants generally were small.
Ms. Boxer replied that the Japanese had said the same thing, at least until the March 11 accident. “It’s eerie to me,” she said. “I don’t sense enough humility from all of us here.”
Another witness, Charles G. Pardee, the chief operating officer of Exelon Generation, the largest nuclear operator in the United States, also testified that the nation’s nuclear plants were designed for the worst natural disaster observed in their areas, plus a substantial margin.
Thomas B. Cochran, a physicist at the Natural Resources Defense Council, gave some credit to American operators. Worldwide, he said, reactors are “not sufficiently safe,” but “the next nuclear power plant disaster is more likely to occur abroad than in the U.S.”
But the industry will have to rethink its practices nonetheless, he said. “If the nuclear power industry is to have a long-term future, attention must be paid to existing operating reactors,” Mr. Cochran said. He ticked off a long list of factors, including American reactors that share Fukushima’s basic design, that would be grounds for phasing them out.
WRAPUP 6-TEPCO still working on plan to end Japan nuclear crisis
By Taiga Uranaka and Chisa Fujioka Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:35am EDT
* Blueprint to end nuclear crisis still being prepared
* Radiation in sea near crippled plant spikes
* Japan cuts economic outlook for first time in six months
* China says Fukushima is no Chernobyl (Adds radiation in Tokyo down to pre-quake level, Russia comment)
TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - The operator of Japan's crippled nuclear plant said on Wednesday it was still working on a detailed plan to end the country's nuclear crisis a month after it began, as tests showed radiation levels in the sea near the complex had spiked.
Engineers moved a step closer to emptying highly radioactive water from one of the six crippled reactors, which would allow them to start repairing the cooling system crucial to regaining control of the reactors.
Japan's nuclear safety agency said the latest tests showed radiation nearly doubled last week, to 23 times above legal limits, in the sea off Minamisoma city near the plant.
Radiation in Tokyo, 240 km (150 miles) from the plant, had fallen to pre-disaster levels on Tuesday, the science ministry said late on Wednesday.
A series of strong aftershocks this week has rattled eastern Japan, slowing the recovery effort at the Fukushima Daiichi plant due to temporary evacuations of workers and power outages.
The beleaguered president of operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said the situation at the nuclear plant, wrecked by a 15-metre tsunami on March 11, had stabilised.
But TEPCO president Masataka Shimizu said the firm was still preparing a blueprint to end the crisis, now rated on a par with the world's worst nuclear accident, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
"As instructed by Prime Minister Kan we are working out the specific details of how to handle the situation so they can be disclosed as soon as possible," a relaxed-looking Shimizu told a news conference in Tokyo.
Shimizu has been largely absent from the recovery operation, spending time in hospital and only visiting the area on Monday. He refused to comment on public calls for his resignation, and again apologised to the Japanese people for the crisis.
"We are making the utmost effort to bring the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi to a cold shutdown and halt the spread of radiation," he said.
ANGRY PROTESTS
TEPCO's Tokyo head office has been the target of angry protests over the nuclear crisis and authorities took no chances on Wednesday, with riot trucks and security officers guarding the front gate during the news conference.
Latest data shows much more radiation leaked from the Daiichi plant in the early days of the crisis than first thought, prompting officials to rate it on a par with the Chernobyl disaster.
But experts were quick to point out the two crises were vastly different in terms of radiation contamination, and on Wednesday, Russia's nuclear chief said Japan was exaggerating the scope of the disaster.
"It is hard for me to assess why the Japanese colleagues have taken this decision. I suspect, this is more of a financial issue, than a nuclear one," Sergei Kiriyenko said on the sidelines of a meeting of major economies in southern China.
There have been fears of contamination among Japan's neighbours, but China said the impact there had been small, noting the radiation was just 1 percent of what it had experienced from Chernobyl.
The toll of the disaster is rising. More than 13,000 people have been confirmed dead, and on Wednesday the government cut its outlook for the economy, in deflation for almost 15 years, for the first time in six months. [ID:nL3E7FD0DS]
"The biggest risks, or uncertain factors for the economy, are when power supplies will recover, whether the nuclear situation will keep from worsening," Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said.
The total cost of the triple catastrophe has been estimated at $300 billion, making it the world's most costly natural disaster. TEPCO said it was working on a compensation plan.
The Yomiuri newspaper reported on Wednesday that the government may cap TEPCO's liability to as little as $24 billion for damages. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch has estimated compensation claims of more than $130 billion.
SEAWATER RADIATION SPIKE
Radiation readings in seawater near the crippled plant spiked last week, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said on Wednesday.
Seawater samples collected on Monday from around 15 km (9 miles) off the coast of Minamisoma city showed radiation in the water rose to 23 times the legal limit from 9.3 times on April 7, said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a NISA deputy director-general.
He later said NISA had asked TEPCO to assess the quake resistance of the buildings, and to look into how they could be reinforced against aftershocks.
"We need to think about how these aftershocks are affecting the buildings, which are already damaged," he said.
Japan has expanded the 20 km (12 miles) evacuation zone around the plant because of high accumulated radiation.
No radiation-linked deaths have been reported and only 21 plant workers have been affected by minor radiation sickness.
Still, the increase in the severity level heightens the risk of diplomatic tension with Japan's neighbours over radioactive fallout. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Kan on Tuesday he was "concerned" about the release of radiation into the ocean.
"Its impact on our country's environment has been small, equivalent to about 1 percent of the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on our country," China's nuclear safety body said on Wednesday. [ID:nL3E7FD04L]
"There is no need to adopt protective measures."
(Additional reporting by Mayumi Negishi, Yoko Nishikawa, Kiyoshi Takenaka, Kazunori Takada, Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo and Alexei Anischuk in Sanya, China; Writing by Michael Perry and Daniel Magnowski; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
Inside the abandoned homes of Fukushima: Haunting images of the tsunami-ravaged exclusion zone
By Daily Mail Reporter Last updated at 10:00 AM on 12th April 2011
They are images that reveal the devastation and panic inside the Fukushima exclusion zone.
Homes rocked by the earthquake, the body of a victim of the devastating tsunami, and animals abandoned by panic-stricken owners fleeing the region as the scale of the nuclear disaster emerged.
They are the first pictures of the impact on the lives of those living inside the 12-mile exclusion zone around the crippled nuclear plant.
But the eerie snapshots of a town deserted in a hurry leave one question: will anyone ever go back?
The exclusion zone around Chernobyl in the former Soviet Union - the scene of the worst nuclear disaster in history - remains a derelict wasteground 25 years on.
And it is hard to believe that this decimated area around Fukushima, where the nuclear disaster was today put on the same threat level as Chernobyl, will not be left similarly abandoned.
Derelict: A restaurant kitchen in Minamisoma, Japan, sits empty, a pot still on the burner, within the exclusion zone, some 12 miles from the Fukushima nuclear power plant
Humanity deserted: The body of a tsunami victim lies amid the rubble in Minamisoma, inside the exclusion zone some 12 miles from the Fukushima nuclear reactor on April 7
Left to their fate: A cat has survived the earthquake and tsunami only to face slow starvation and death, abandoned by its owners as they fled the threat of Fukushima
Ghost town: Metal chairs arranged in a deserted street in Minamisoma, awaiting no one
The treasures left behind: An old black and white photograph still in its shattered, blackened frame, is left behind in the rubble
No time to clean: Mats and rubbish still litter the floor of an evacuation hall emptied after the order to leave the area was given
Take only what you need: Shoes left behind in a shop, their owners hopefully miles away and safe from the disaster
No man left behind: Japanese police covered in protective suits carry the body of a tsunami victim recovered from within the exclusion zone
Facing the horror: A policeman stands guard as the careful hunt for tsunami victims continues inside the exclusion zone
Out of time: Licking thirstily next to an empty bowl of water, two abandoned dogs sit in the sun of the exclusion zone and wait
Not a living soul in sight: An empty street under the surreal light of an evening in the exclusion zone
Domestic nightmare: Pictures still hang from the walls but the rest of this house within the zone has been reduced to rubble
Fighting for life: The bodies of dead horses lie rotting under the hay as one who survived turns its head towards the camera
Dried out: A broken sink lies covered in dust over the cracked tiles of a tsunami-ravaged house in Odaka Town, Minamisoma, within the exclusion zone
The Ukrainian town of Pripyat, which was built to house Chernobyl workers, has remained a ghost town in the decades since the nuclear disaster
The town of Pripyat had a population of 50,000 before the Chernobyl accident. It was evacuated in two days and has remained desolate since 1986
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
