Replies to post #117624 on Biotech Values

[marthambles]

ML on VRUS risk/reward

Price Objective Change Pharmasset, Inc. (VRUS, US$82.54, C-1-9) Upside options substantially outweigh downside We are substantially raising our VRUS price objective from $72 to $149 following our scenario analysis of the multiple upside options VRUS is pursuing with its HCV development stage nucleoside (nuc) based drug portfolio. Based on new data presented last week for VRUS' lead nuc (PSI-7977), we have increased confidence that this drug will play a major role in the future HCV treatment paradigm (in 2015+) by maximizing viral cure rates, both with interferon but also in an all oral HCV treatment cocktail. We view the risk/reward as very favorable into the next key data catalyst for VRUS (est Sept/Oct), as we believe shares have potential to double from current levels on the upside, with 20% downside on disappointing results.

[iwfal]

HCV and DAA-only regimens

The speed at which this two drug combination knocks down the virus to near undetectable levels could mark the end of interferon. The virus doesn't have the time to build resistance or mutate.

Based upon the BMY data for the 2 DAA regimen it appears that RVR is not as good a predictor of SVR in a DAA-only regimen as it is in SOC. >40% of RVRs either broke through or relapsed after end of treatment. I.e. "Speed of response" means less in DAA-only regiments than it does in SOC.


Question 1: What do you think the SVR rate for the same BMY DAA-only regimen looks like in naives? (I think there is a general assumption being made that if the DAA-only regimen is getting 36% SVR in nulls then it will get >>90% in naives - and I don't think that is necessarily true. Extremely hardy virus wrt SOC doesn't entirely equate to extremely hardy virus wrt DAAs.)

I'm more comfortable saying Riba is done with, considering it's just a weak nucleoside which works very well with interferon, and the testing we are currently seeing in combo with Riba is just a slow shedding of SOC.

Question 2: If you were a patient and were offered a 24 week course with 90+% chance of SVR in 24 weeks of a 3 DAA only treatment or 90% chance of SVR in 12 weeks of a 3 DAA plus SOC which would you choose? Keeping in mind that the DAAs are not benign in their AE. And keeping in mind that clearly BMY is targeting to use an interferon which has much lower AE then inf-a.