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swampdonkey

04/04/11 5:36 PM

#77542 RE: ratobranco #77540

Good grief this space is falling apart. Rato whilst you were very much wrong on the overall markets you were bang on about this sector. Kudos to you
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BiotechValues

04/04/11 6:17 PM

#77549 RE: ratobranco #77540

I don't believe "THEY ARE ALL FRAUDS". Not for one minute.

Those generalizations aren't helpful-

I think we should be looking for ways to spot companies that have a higher chance of being the real deal- maybe coming up with a screener based on various criteria (dilution, passing 10-K on first round, auditor strength, etc.).

I'm looking for a few needles in this haystack.
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Michael Anderson

04/05/11 10:26 AM

#77610 RE: ratobranco #77540

I dont know if they are all frauds, but it is definitely a good amount and many that arent outright frauds and have an actual business are overstating earnings and cash and even stealing cash. I wouldnt be surprised to see the above total at 75% or higher. For now, regardless if all or even less than half are frauds, they all need to be treated like frauds and I agree not to invest long term in this space right now. The only way to go to play them is to trade them and even that is risky, its difficult to hold one for more than a day without something happening, a hitpiece, a statement about mismatching SAIC filings(and nothing more), delayed report, resignings, halts, etc. Find the quick trade and get out. Eventually the legit companies, few and far between will seperate themselves, but that will be a very long time and even at that point, these companies will be so disgusted that they will go private at a much lower valuation than what is worth the risk in the investment or they can say F off and the price can decline. I hope it turns out better than it seems right now, but there is too much risk and too many other quality investments out there to bother with this space longterm, at least for now. Good luck to all