Replies to post #117518 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

One major gaffe in india was BIOD insulin needed to be refrigerated yet they enrolled Indian patients who had no refrigerators. Um huh?

[DewDiligence]

This piece from Sep 2010 has some discussion of partnering opportunities:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/227333-sanofi-aventis-seeks-the-holy-grail-of-insulin

[mcbio]

To get BIOD and HALO on ultrafast insulin, you have to understand insulin and diabetes market. I had followed NVO for years. I see the need for ultrafast insulin. It's highly likely one of the big three insulin makers (NVO, LLY, SNY) will partner with them if phase II data come out fine. BIOD used to be ahead of HALO by several years, now HALO is ahead by roughly one year.

Thanks for all the detailed info. And thanks to Dew for the article he linked to in #msg-61671536 as I thought that article had a very nice overview of the market and the opportunity. Just a few follow-ups. Is it safe to say that you feel that BIOD's ultrafast acting insulin is sufficiently differentiated from the fast acting insulins to be able to succesfully compete against any generic fast acting insulins that could be on the market at the time BIOD's product is ready for commercialization?

With respect to competition in the clinic, I assume that HALO and MNKD are the primary competitors given that's who you cited and really the only players who were cited in the article Dew linked to. Do you feel that HALO's one-year advantage is any kind of issue for BIOD? I'm not sure exactly where MNKD stands in timing in this race given their recent setbacks. Also, do you see the products from each of these three companies as reasonably comparable or does one clearly stand out from the other?

Given their limited financial resources, I'm curious if BIOD will need to raise cash at some point this year to further extend their runway and to strengthen their position at the negotiating table with a prospective partner. If you don't expect them to partner until after Phase 2 data, that won't be out until early 2012 at the earliest so they will clearly have to raise some money at some point. I'd hate to see them succumb to "predatory partnering" (to borrow a phrase from ACHN management). Regardless, the $60M market cap is tiny and you can't expect a company with that kind of valuation to be in a perfect situation. BIOD is going on my watch list.