Replies to post #10362 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>>If the next EMEA decision is another delay / request for more info, and if GTCB does not raise money before that decision, what do you think will happen to the company?<<

[All JMHO]: If there is a further EMEA delay beyond the current expectation (10% chance), then there is a 70% chance (10%x70%=7% chance a priori) that the company gets acquired for more than the current stock price. If there is a further delay and the company were not acquired (10%x30%=3% chance a priori), the dilution would be severe, leaving little residual value for existing shareholders.

The company may be bought even if there is no further EMEA delay, but in this case the buyout price will presumably be commensurately higher.