News Focus
News Focus
icon url

marcos

12/07/02 4:21 PM

#677 RE: KastelCo #676

It's the ways of thinking that are of most value, in listening to others, imho ... not the picks, but the explanation of how they arrived at those picks .... even a great pick can be a dated commodity, as it gets proven correct by getting run up it gets less undervalued, they've all got a 'best before' price on them somewhere .... and the best of thought processes will come up with duds in a field like resources, where you've got the iffiness of geology on top of ever-present commodity-price and political risks ... lots of the Luck O' the Draw to it, best you can do is place yourself as close to the path of good luck as possible

For me it's the questions people ask, more than the answers they supply or the picks they make, though the latter may also be great, and certainly worthy of close consideration, but the greater and more lasting value to the speculator lies in the questions .... to take two examples, John Kaiser and Claude Cormier -

Kaiser looks first for the share structure, the stage the company is at in its promo/financing cycle ... he brings geology into it later, or efficiency of widget production or whatever business the thing is in, but first and foremost his interest is in the supply/demand trends of those little pieces of paper representing shares in the effort

Claude seems to come at it from the geology first, though he's fully aware of share structure and market cap relative to that geology, and makes it plain that the speculator can't see these things as separate ... but consideration of the geology seems to be paramount to him

So, my theory is that JK's thinking lends itself more to the seasonal flipping of sharepaper, and Claude's to the eventual scoring of homeruns ... both pursuits being highly useful, and their possibilities being always found together in any play, still somewhat distinct approaches .... this is just a general impression, and i know Claude only through online comments, never subscribed to ormetal.com yet [probably will one day, always been curious], and it's been a long time since i subscribed to JK ... but imho the most value comes from watching the Why of their picks - the questions they ask