Replies to post #3388 on Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Your war cycle will end in China’s victory, the culmination of the cycle being a confrontation with China


Let me go outside the realm of economics in which it is a given that China in supporting our massive debt has the distinct advantage.


Why do I think China will win?

China is changing the rules. In changing the rules they have already forced us to take the defensive. We are already scrambling. People will not understand this for a long time.

Cases in point.

1. Bush intends to dominate China by controlling the flow of oil. China is taking steps to become less dependent on imported oil in doing so they are taking away Bush’s most potent weapon, oil.
#msg-6131328

2. The United States prides itself on its overwhelming air superiority, the ability for out aircraft carriers to quickly transport planes to a targeted country where we unleash our ‘shock and awe’. But China has refused to attempt to match us plane for plane they have instead put great energy into the advancement of their submarine fleet a means by which they will stop our carriers and thus our planes from even arriving on the scene. This has again forced the United States to play catch-up and we are working doggedly on building a modern submarine fleet.

"They are building their force to deter and delay our ability to intervene in a Taiwan crisis," said Eric McVadon, a former military attaché at the United States Embassy in Beijing. "What they have done is cleverly develop some capabilities that have the prospect of attacking our niche vulnerabilities."

The reality is that McVadon is confirming that the Chinese do in fact have an 'assassin's
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In most aspects we are playing China’s game, this means China is in control. China has changed the conditions.

I would submit that if even Dean openly supports the war, then yes this country is in real danger. There must be a consensus among leaders of both parties that we either fight or we will go under. What other reason except survival would cause such a convergence of thought between previous political adversaries?

-Am

[otraque]

The shortest war cycle was 22 years.
Say started a war cycle in 2002/2003 we very likely have at least 20 years ahed of us.
But all war cycles now contain weaponry that can make the next war after one being fought with wooden clubs.
There used to be a world clock the measured Nuke danger,
Midnight was the horror moment.
It was at 11.59pm during Cuban missile crisis.
I was in NYC during that time.
On the day of highest crisis and TVs were and radios were playing what siren sounds meant---i forget them, but like 3 blaring of sirens with pause and then 3 more blarings meant missiles were heading towards NYC.
People behavior, strangely benignly fatalistic--that the NYC character.
My first wife and i went for a walk in a park.
We discussed do we make a run to the fall-out shelters in the area if the 'missiles are on their way' signal sounded.
We came to the conclusion, what's the point, we knew what BS those shelters were, and who would want to live in what followed.
But now there is another critical mass element, global economy has never been in history at such a status that in a war cycle the global economy could have a TOTAL MELTOWN .
Even Greenspan when ask "is it possible that there could be a complete collapse of the entire financial system thru out the world?" Replied "Yes, it is possible, economics is not an exact science, and i as a philosophic objectivist can not deny the possibility could happen, i think the likelihood small but yes it could happen."
A global financial collapse at this time in history of massive cities, major over population, extreme ultra poverty for over a billion( those that make less than one dollar a day) would send the world at minimum into chaos, prolonged and devastating, a new dark age looking far into the future.
And at worst, within this chaos and despair someone with 'button power' thinks the only solution is mass depopulation via the nuke.
The lets start all over ultimate doom concept taking hold in someone with 'button power' being in place.
This is not sci-fi, this be objective analysis of a definite scenario that could happen, i place it at 25%.
Thornton Wilder, the eternal ultimate romantic optimist about mankind wrote the play "by the skin of our death", that man has always prevailed if at times but by the "the skin of its' teeth".
This is really a complacent assumption.
The eminent historian Arnold Toynbee concluded his 10 volume 'The History of Civilization' by saying there is no hope for man's future.
He spent 10 volumes of awesome thought exercises and deep deep research to arrive at that conclusion.
The assumption that mankind will never crash down on itself into an abyss of chaos and potential annihilation is really a presumption, a ' taking for granted' we will proceed onward to some grand destiny, somehow, eventually; that when i put to feircely objective analysis i can see this has clearly never been proven.
In fact progress has increased significantly the chances mankind's destiny is to fail, horribly.
Tom Paine's "Age of Reason" is great little book but it has one fatal flaw, the assumption that man as a mass is capable of becoming a reason ruled mass has no foundation, it is quite possibly a phantasmal delusion.
I look at the future with as much brutal eyed objectivity as i can muster and i can as a result say the doomdayers actually have a very strong case.
That man is destined to reap what it has sown, and what it has sown be many more seeds of its own destruction than seeds that could avert this destruction.
Observing americans the past years has affirmed what a pathetic species is man when viewd as mass, rather than on an individual basis.
I challenge anyone to write how man will prevail and not have be but "feel good" BS.

[CoalTrain]

Putin Makes Historic Visit to Israel

Who is losing influence in the Middle East? Who is gaining influence? First the arms deal with Syria last week and this week a historic first time ever visit of a Kremlin Leader to Israel.


By RAVI NESSMAN, Associated Press Writer

JERUSALEM - Russian President Vladimir Putin made a historic first visit to Israel by a Kremlin leader Wednesday, hours after calling for a Mideast peace conference in Moscow this fall.


Putin arrived from Cairo, Egypt, where he proposed a Middle East peace conference in Moscow in the fall. The topics of talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders are expected to include proposed Russian missile sales to Syria and an expanded role for Russia in Mideast diplomacy.


Putin was greeted at Ben Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv by Israeli Vice Premier Ehud Olmert. Putin did not make a statement to the press.


In Cairo, Putin, whose government is a sponsor of the "road map" plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, said he would discuss the conference proposal with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon during his three-day visit to Israel.


"I am suggesting that we should convene a conference for all these countries concerned (with the peace process) and the Quartet next autumn," Putin said during a joint news conference with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.


The Quartet includes Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations. The peace plan introduced by the four was long stalled but has been revived by Israel and the Palestinians since the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.


In Jerusalem, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Israel did not object to an international conference held under the terms of the peace plan, but he said much needed to be done first.


"Israel has accepted the 'road map,' and in the second stage of the 'road map' it specifically mentions a conference," Regev said. "So we don't have a problem with a conference ... but obviously we have not reached the second stage of the 'road map' yet."


The Palestinians, like the Egyptians, have been pushing for an international conference sooner rather than later, and Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat welcomed Putin's offer.


Erekat noted the proposed conference would come after completion of Israel's planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip this summer and said it could help the push for a final peace deal. Palestinians worry Israeli efforts toward peace will end with the Gaza pullout.


"We need to specify the next steps, and an international conference would serve the purpose of resuming permanent status negotiations between the two parties," Erekat said.


Putin said foreign ministers of the Quartet will meet in Moscow on May 8 to discuss the peace process. He said high-level experts would attend the autumn conference, but the exact level of representation still had to be agreed upon, saying he still needed to speak with Sharon.


Putin said Russia believed it was necessary "to activate the role of international mediators" in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.


Mubarak, whose government is cooperating with Israel on the Gaza pullout to ensure stability, criticized Sharon for not implementing commitments on prisoner releases and withdrawals from West Bank towns that he made at a February meeting with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in the Egyptian resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh.


"I worry that the commitments won't be implemented," he said.


Mubarak and Putin also discussed Iraq, where violence has been on the rise in recent weeks. Putin indicated Russia wants to see a timetable soon for the departure of U.S.-led coalition forces.


"There must be an agreement on the basis of a new constitution, and there must be an agreement on the timing and conditions for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq," the Russian leader said.





Mubarak told reporters "the United Nations should play a role in helping Iraq and in particular in rebuilding its constitutional and legislative institutions."

"It should also play a role in the reconstruction of Iraq," Mubarak said.

Putin's stop in Cairo was the first state visit to Egypt by a Russian or Soviet leader since Nikita Khrushchev came in 1964 to inaugurate construction of the Aswan High Dam, which the Soviet Union helped finance.

Egypt's close ties with Moscow began waning after Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser died in 1970. Nasser's successor, Anwar Sadat, set the regional powerhouse on a pro-American track that accelerated under Mubarak.

Putin's trip to Israel is the first by a Kremlin leader to the Jewish state and is part of his effort to burnish an image as a world leader amid accusations of backsliding on democracy at home.

It comes as increasingly close ties between the two countries are threatened by Russia's determination to push ahead with a missile sale to Syria that Israel considers threatening. Other potential sore points are Moscow's nuclear aid to Iran, signs of rising anti-Semitism in Russia and the Kremlin's push to extradite several former Russian billionaires who have taken residence in Israel.