Nulojix is one of the five new drugs BMY is counting on to get over the patent cliff from Plavix and Avapro—see the prologue of #msg-47502391. Whether Nujolix will be a modest niche drug or a fairly big seller remains to be seen.
Two years ago (#msg-47502391), BMY gave EPS guidance for 2013 and listed its five most consequential new drugs. Here’s an update on each of them:
• Yervoy: approved in US and EU; commercial success in multiple lines of melanoma; trials ongoing in other indications.
• Eliquis: approved in EU (but not US) for VTE prevention; FDA issued CRL in AF/stroke prevention that seems fixable (#msg-76926354); all told, will likely be a very big-selling drug in due course.
• Dapagliflozin: approved by CHMP in Apr 2012; FDA CRL issued in Jan 2012; probably won’t be a large-selling drug due to strong competition and lingering safety issues.
• Nujolix (belatacept): approved by FDA in June 2012; too soon to say whether it will be a major contributor, but my guess is it won’t be.
• Brivanib: failed phase-3 trials in first- and second-line liver cancer; probably won’t make it to market.
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