Laird i just put about 25% of my MoneyMart into 2year CDS as they went for flat with 10-year--at 4.0x through MorganStanley( i forget the x:)
This is my read, we will have a sell the news come FOMC meeting in June.
Reason, speculation is rising strongly that fed will just raise 25bp and signal a pause or a stop because they will refuse to have an inverse yield(some gambling they won't raise at all in June).
So we are seeing buy the rumour sell news of Fed stopping or a long pause and just a 25bp hike.
But on the other hand if Fed raises 25bp and keeps signaling another rise for next meeting, that will be sold also, as it would be counter to why people are buying the rumour.
But near term , we are having either a major head-fake or we will rally hard as we approach FOMC meeting---unless we sell-down hard in last 2 hours, TA wise a close above 1182SPX or 1503 NDX technically is quite bullish, by the book that is.
The harder the rally the better as the faster the sideline money moves in the better as i feel the supply is limited.
Spead Writers have lost their profitable spread today, i think, that is also bullish, if we don't dump damn soon.
NDX bull breakout i see to 1553 area, or a if a mania move, to 1630 area.
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