Japan’s Koizumi courts India as China’s clout grows
Countries are altering their behavior patterns to compensate for the rise of the Middle Kingdom.
-Am
28 April 2005
TOKYO/NEW DELHI - Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi leaves for India on Thursday on a mission that could mark a major shift in Japan’s strategy in Asia as China rapidly emerges as a diplomatic and economic superpower.
The trip to New Delhi, only weeks after a landmark visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, is part of Tokyo’s “strategic diplomacy” to cope with the growing clout of China.
“China wants to win India over to its side, and so does Japan,” said Terumasa Nakanishi, professor of international politics at the University of Kyoto.
“The two counties are waging a tug-of-war with strategic diplomacy,” Nakanishi said.
“Japan is at a major turning point in its diplomacy in Asia. For the first time since the end of World War Two, Japan is now trying to win India over to its side because of China.”
A Japanese government official, noting that China has been approaching India aggressively to establish closer ties, said Tokyo should see New Delhi as a long-term partner.
“The importance of India has been growing fast economically, diplomatically and geopolitically,” said the official, who did not want to be identified.
Indian analysts said Koizumi should use his visit to shed what some see as Tokyo’s obsessive focus on China, especially after the recent outbursts of anti-Japan sentiment there.
“The Japanese have to bear in mind the Japanese phobia that the Chinese have,” said Bharat Karnad, a foreign policy expert at New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research.
“Japan should have more self-respect in dealing with China and should look at India as a long-term strategic and economic partner,” Karnad said.
“China has many socio-political problems that are currently nascent but which are going to emerge in the medium to long-term, one reason being uneven development in China.”
Koizumi will stay in New Delhi until Saturday after talks with President Abdul Kalam and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. From India, he flies to Pakistan, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
Window of opportunity Japanese businesses have begun to look to India as a promising window of opportunity for investment following anti-Japan demonstrations in China this month, Nakanishi said.
“The anti-demonstrations in China prompted Japanese firms to think seriously of India as a place for investment,” he said.
Japan, a close ally of Washington, could also play the role of mediator to help the United States forge closer economic ties with India to counterbalance the influence of China, he added.
Japan exports mainly machinery and electrical equipment to India while importing jewels, fishery products and iron ore.
But total trade between Japan and India stood at just $4.35 billion in the year to April 2004, far less than India’s trade with China which stood amounted to more than $13 billion in 2004.
Japan is the fourth biggest investor in India after the United States, Mauritius and Britain. Between 1991 and 2004, investments totalled about $3 billion.
Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998 prompted Japan to impose economic sanctions against the two South Asian nations, putting a damper on investment.
Japan lifted those sanctions in October 2001 in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the United States and the government has gradually turned its attention to India in recent years.
India has been the biggest recipient of development loans for the last two years, outranking Indonesia and China.
Japan has reduced loans to China for four straight years, knocking it from the top spot.
Japan extended $1.27 billion in loans to India in the year to March 31 to improve infrastructure and fight poverty.
In Islamabad, Koizumi is likely to announce Tokyo’s decision to resume yen loans to Pakistan, suspended after it conducted nuclear tests in 1998, Japanese officials said.
Loans to India have already resumed, but fresh loans to Pakistan were put on hold while Islamabad worked out a deal to restructure its debt with international creditors.
In Luxembourg, Koizumi holds talks with European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso and Luxembourg Prime Minister Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday. He was expected to urge the European Union not to life its arms embargo on China.
Koizumi meets with Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende in Amsterdam shortly before flying back to Tokyo.
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