Replies to post #2914 on RCMW Group Inc (fka RCMW)

[rlivingston]

Scout, here is how I approached my Culbertson earnings model:

1. Maximum crush capacity = 5,000 MT per month (assumed as it is not known right now)

2. Price per MT of Crude Degummed Oil = $963 / MT (used weighted average of calendar year prices for 2008 - 2010. Although current prices are $1,200 / MT, I believe there is too much fluctuation in the historic prices to use this going forward or trending it out)

3. Price per MT of Meal = $239 / MT (used same weighted average for same reason)

4. I did not adjust the price per MT from Canadian $'s (Canola Council data is in Canadian $') to US $'s becuase the conversion rates have historically been so close.

5. Assumed 1,079 liters of Crude Degummed Oil per MT (can someone check this?) I based this on the 10/31/10 10Q which states 19.7 million liters is approximatley 18,250 MT.

6. Resulting weight of meal would be 10% of gross canola weight input

Scenario 1 - Gross of $1,093,000 / month or $13,116,000 per year(Assumes 3,000 MT of Camelina and 2,000 MT of Canola per month.)

Camelina = $180,000 (3,000 MT x $60 / MT)

Canola = $865,000 (((2,000 MT of seed x 2,204.63 lbs. / MT) / 50 lbs per bushel) x 11 liters of oil per bushel) = 970,000 liters of oil / 1,079 liters per MT = 900 MT of oil x $963 / MT = $865,000

Meal = $48,000 (2,000 MT of seed x 10% = 200 MT of meal x $239 / MT) (I did not calculate anything for the resulting Camelina meal, as I am not clear from the lease what happens to it. I am assuming Great Plains keeps oil and meal.)

Scenario 2 - Gross of $913,000 / month or $10,956,000 per year(Assumes 0 MT of Camelina and 2,000 MT of Canola per month.)

Scenario 3 - Gross of $2,280,000 / month or $27,360,000 / year(Assumes 0 MT of Camelina and 5,000 MT of Canola per month.)

Scenario 4 - Gross of $516,000/ month or $6,192,000/ year (Assumes 1,000 MT of Camelina and 1,000 MT of Canola per month.)

I think gross of $30M on Culbertson is best case scenario all of the stars lining up. I am leaning toward somewhere between scenario 2 and 4, but that also assumes we are up and running from day one. I would possibly need to adjust for ramp up and seasonality. ALL IN MY OPINION.

[StockScout1]

Montana Startup: I wanted to bring this post forward to the present time. Now, that we are so close to startup. I wanted to go back and refigure some of my figures on this. Maybe I could get some help on this. I believe this post has all of the relevant links that may help. FYI This might help in getting to the bottom of potential pps. With or without the Chongqing Grain Group or the JV.