Replies to post #116455 on Biotech Values

[ghmm]

NKTR:

Thanks for pointing out the clinicaltrials record. I thought the 5mg only showed a trend and recall them saying the 50 had some GI issues but the 25mg was well tolerated. I guess it gives us 2 shots on goal at least.

I actually like 102 in ovarian cancer over breast cancer though I am in the "why not partner camp" :-). I heard a remark from Robin about controlling development of it that I thought was a subtle stab at AZN for their delay in moving to Phase 3. My guess is he got an offer but either the upfront was too low or the royalty wasn't in the high 20's - low 30's. I wonder if the multiple indications complicated the deal too.

I am disappointed 105 was "deprioratized". Actually one thing I thought (not that I am counting on it) the company could do is one of these huge development deals where they agree to apply their technology to a broad range of compounds (my guess would be a company with a big oncology focus). I know (and like) Robin wants to go 1/3 - 1/2 of the economics but one way this could work would be to give NKTR the option to buy in to that stake by picking up the equivalent development costs (especially if in a couple years we have some nice royalty revenue).

[mcbio]

1. NKTR118, at least now we know why AZN delayed 118 for so long. They have been opimizing dosing for phase III. Phase III dosage are 12.5mg, 25mg while phase II dosage were 5mg, 25mg, 50mg, 100mg.

Do you see the potential for NKTR118 being a sufficient overhang for PGNX for some time? The PR says filing for 118 isn't expected until 2013 (assuming positive results of course) so I'm assuming there won't be any Phase 3 results until at least mid-2012. Hopefully PGNX will have a decision on an expanded label for subQ Relistor and Phase 3 results on oral Relistor by this time. If positive, hopefully both events would outweigh any potential concerns over NKTR's 118 and push PGNX shares higher.