RRainman9999 re TGA:
q1 will be seasonally stronger than any other qtr for TGA because of their PSA. In Q1, they get 1/2 of their capex expenditures from the previous year added to their cost oil account. On Tasour, they have been reimbursed for all their previous drilling expenses so the formula is not favorable.
2004 was a reasonably active year for TGA so it should impact their results in a positive way. By getting back 1/2 their drilling expenses in q1, it boosts part of their output back into the more favorable sharing formula. If you look at past years, TGA always posts more favorable numbers in q1.
I haven't looked at q1 to guesstimate results but am really looking to the announcement about the horizontal well at An Nagyah for a boost. In a prime location, should announce decent production test results any day.
Pipeline results are fairly predictable. Depends on how much behind the pipe production is waiting for the pipeline completion. The latest An Nagah horizontal #15, should be a significant producer in the 2,000-4,500bpd range.
Any additional exploratory wells that find a new field will be "enabled" by the pipeline. Right now, if they found something, they couldn't increase production anyway because they can't get it to the coast for shipment. I expect a mild positive reaction to the final actual event.
I had hoped Harmel news would really pop the stock but because of the huge spread in medium heavy crude due to the Saudi overproduction of same, I am guessing TGA will not go full speed ahead with Harmel, even if the test well results go well this spring/summer. There are two wells on test now to see if production can be maintained at commercial rates of 100bpd+. They initially flowed at 500bpd. Large shallow pool of medium heavy crude would require 80 wells to drain the pool. Congrats on your foreign drillers. Bobwins
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