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steve5

03/14/11 2:06 AM

#2815 RE: Jackroch #2814

IMO.You all three are on the money. That's the way this process is flowing seen by anyone able to connect all the dots,
even the past not so "good" ones, since they play their
essential part as well, on the making of the big picture.
Is a complex one, like a 'canola or camelina crop circle' not easy to see from a rat's view point.

Very exciting days ahead for CPOW, finally Mr. Shenher's
hard, persistent and honest work is paying off
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steve5

03/14/11 3:57 AM

#2817 RE: Jackroch #2814

Cooking oil crisis

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/commodities/article.jsp?content=20101206_10009_10009

Canola is looking like an increasingly attractive replacement for a dwindling supply of palm and soybean oil.

By Jacqueline Nelson

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Story Tools Related ArticlesThe Performer: Top chef Lynn CrawfordCrop dust-upMeet your stoveThe world's emerging markets are guzzling oil faster than it can be produced, but they're not using the oil to drive or fly — they're frying it.

Demand for palm and soybean oils popular for cooking in China and India will increase by 11% this year as their economies expand, people eat more, and consumers prepare more western–style foods. But there will be a 12% decrease in inventories of the oil, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

This isn't a new problem, but it is becoming a critical one. In November, palm oil reached its highest price in more than two years after rumours surfaced that the U.S. might lower its soybean production expectations. Reserves are being tapped, and this year, in China, people have begun to hoard cooking oils.

On top of growing demand, the world's weather has caused problems in the supply chain. Severe drought in Brazil, which grows the world's second–largest soybean crop, has delayed planting and limited supply, and other countries like Canada have suffered a wet year, where floods, particularly across the Maritimes, have damaged crops.

Even without weather problems, there's just not enough oil. In late August, vegetable oils analyst, Dorab Mistry, reported that global consumption of vegetable oils for cooking and biofuels will increase by six million tonnes by March 2011. Supply isn't currently expected to exceed 2.3 million tonnes.

But where soy and palm oils (which are direct substitutes) have failed to satisfy appetites, there are new opportunities emerging that may prove profitable for Canada. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in October that Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 400,000 tonnes last year, to 6.4 million, based on China's strong demand. Rapeseed, better known in Canada as canola (a hybrid variety), is moving in to capitalize on the demand for more oil. "We export 85% of our canola crop," says Robert Hunter, vice–president of communications at the Canola Council of Canada. "The shortage has actually been an opportunity for us to increase market share in other countries." Hunter also says this increased demand has been complemented by more Canadian farmers growing canola, and genetically modified crops that can handle more diverse weather conditions. Plus, in the past five years when developed countries began to look at trans fats, canola oil was held up for its excellent health profile. When it comes to new markets, canola made a push into India after the country reduced its high tariffs on oils to avoid shortages, and demand for canola continues to rise in the U.S., Mexico and Japan, too. Meanwhile, Canada's crush capacity for seeds has also increased by about 60%, meaning the country is able to process more seed at home. And while Canada's wet 2010 meant less acres were planted, the modified crop has exceeded expectations.

Alberta's oilsands have long been touted as a solution to the projected crisis over peak oil. Oddly enough, it is the canola fields of the prairies that might end up heading off a more urgent crisis.