*So far this week, we've seen the HUI (I'd much rather use HUI then XAU which uses hedged components)... anyways so far this week we've clearly seen the HUI outperforming the broader markets to the upside by as much as 10-fold. Now this is definitely a divergence, but it's an outperformance divergence, it might be the first sign, it might not.
Once "true" divergence occurs in which the HUI gains while the markets lose, it will become clear, it has happened in the past and I expect it to return much like the 2001-2002 trend.
I was just speculating on the Q's, and I still believe that this intraday rise here is false, and the rise today in this and the broader markets is as well because the volume isn't doing anything for the bulls, it more or less just looks like sellers sitting on the sidelines. And we know the volume lacking is a bearish divergence, meanwhile on the gold stocks, the volume while nothing spectacular today has been gradually increasing throughout the session with the price from what I saw.
So yes, in conclusion, if I believe the Q's are headed lower and that the HUI will hold its own, then yes I'm calling this as a signal that they are going to divert, but I'm not going to make that complete call yet, I expect it to occur no doubt, but these markets are returning to a level of complacency today so anything is possible.
I'm not ready to make the long-term call that you asked me on the 2002-2005 uptrend lines, maybe I'll be able to look at what you mean later this week.
Now as I write this, the Q's are magically looking bullish... so like I said, anything goes when complacency rules...
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