Replies to post #13192 on Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

e-wave...?

Wave analyst Harry S. Dent commented today:

“The extreme bearish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors […]is now at 188% bears to bulls. This extreme is only consistent with a major market bottom. With the failure to hold support levels yesterday and today, it is increasingly likely that we will see a sharp drop of 2% to 5% early next week and put in the bottom for this year between 9,700 and 10,000 on the Dow.”

According to Dent, a drop of this magnitude early next week would represent an extreme buy signal: “After such readings in the past the markets have advanced 27.5% on average, and as high as 40%, in the 52 weeks to follow. That would be totally in line with our expectations of a new high in the Dow by early 2006, and targets as high as 14,000.”

----------------------------------

...and everyone is talking about the high volume selling, and the bearishness of it all. It seems to me that every damned time the Naz starts pushing 2.5 billion in volume were handed a pivot point ... and high volume days are even more apparent on the Dow chart below it.




----------------------------------

Fwiw, I started buying again on Friday, a healthcare stock on strength and a tech stock on weakness ... not for the timid, and unfortunately this market has turned this once medium-term trader into a very short-term trader, you could even call me a daytrader. <sigh>

[GettingBetter]

From John Murphy

RECAP OF RECENT ADVICE ... I'm aware that some of our readers are somewhat surprised by what appears to be a relatively quick shift in the market and in my view of it. My shift to a more positive view started a couple of weeks ago. I had been negative on the market since the start of the year. I had expected an eventual drop back to last summer's lows. On May 4, however, when the market indexes started to rebound off their 200-day averages, I suggested reducing bearish positions and a shift back to a more neutral posture. That day's headline read: "Lighten up on Bear Positions" (May 04, 2005). I didn't, however, recommend new long positions in the market indexes. On Monday of this week, I described why an upturn in the Nasdaq was a positive sign for the market and also wrote about some positive sector rotations. Yesterday's climb, however, left little doubt that the market was turning higher. That's why I suggested that new long commitments were justified. And, as is usually the case, I believe those new longs should be concentrated in those groups that are leading the market higher. I'm not completely sure what impact the recent upturn means for the longer-term picture. In times of doubt, however, it's usually best to follow the market signals. At least for now, those market signals have turned positive.