*Ander, why are you so sour? Prices move up and prices move down. Targets are for pikers, once the indicators go SOUR on you, you step back and rethink and then do what's smart with the position. The fact of the matter is, oil wasn't going to go parabolic with the XOI diverging severely from such a speculation. I called it right and I called it nimble. It was showing the possible signs and the potential technical formation of a parabolic surge to 69 before tanking, but it didn't materialize, big deal... I've read my posts plenty of times, and I'm actually long past those postings, as a market participant, one must be aware of the past, learn from it, forget about it while in the present, and focus on the future.
And for what it's worth I see oil at $69 in the longer-run, my probabilities as to where oil is going at this time depends on the dollar getting pumped up, it would perfectly correlate with my current speculation that oil is going to panic into the lower and mid 40's and in quick fashion. Upon an oil panic to $40-$42, I would no doubt turn exceptionally bullish again (AT THE BOTTOM)... and look at the technicals and draw out possibilities... until then, you wanted to hear my probabilities... I've been slightly bearish since 10:15 AM the Monday that oil hit its' current record, I'll turn exceptionally bearish should oil break $50, and I'll go back towards neutral around the 200 day SMA, then should it panic through that, I would expect quick panic towards $42.
It's all day by day though, and the market is at a major pivot right now, so the dollar is pivotal, apparently since you're going long the USD on this break above 85 (for your long-term pick), I would expect you are LONG-TERM bearish on oil.
Peace.
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