Possibility.. you set a target, not a possibility.
Come Monday you were bullish on Oil to continue the uptrend, turned bearish when it didn't at 10:00AM. Several hours after tradeing started and they started talking about the massive "head fake" on oil where smart money was buying on the way down, became excited when the XOI broke the fall and then hesitant when it didn't follow through.
Those are classic signs of someone buying a market top. Whether you did or didn't it doesn't matter. the fact that it shows in your posts shows what emotions do you to even at their most subtle levels when you try to buy or sell anything. Bullish when it’s at its peak, and then surprised that it keeps going down. Go back and reread your commentary. Your emotion expresses itsself with the exclamation points and capitalization of words in the middle of sentances. Minor divergneces between a stock and its commodities on the intrday or over a count days are insignificant over the long term trend of a market.
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: Versatiletrader who wrote msg# 6101 Date:4/2/2005 2:42:44 AM Post #of 6626
*Versatiletrader, lol, You've been saying oil to the 30's for over 4 months now! As far as my T/A goes, the current trend and technical analysis doesn't call for $35 oil or even $45. I'm taking it one step at a time, In January I pointed out the chart pattern that would take oil to $69/barrel. Back then the markets were still stupid, and currently the markets still are stupid, as far as I'm concerned, as long as the Dow holds 10,000 and oil & gas hit record highs... the market is stupid...
Back then no one was talking of $69/barrel, every ANALyst on T.V. was speaking of oil in the 30's... or in a "trading range" in the 40's... or other wretched b.s. Meanwhile someone somewhere with lots of money was accumulating oil stocks, pull up the XOI chart and you'll see that in January when everyone was bashing oil, SOMEONE was accumlating the oil stocks, and it wasn't stupid money either as we've witnessed!
Now here we are, that $69/barrel formation is still in tact. The current trend is higher, we will see how all-time high resistance of not too long ago does next week, if it breaks, you bet I'll be standing by my $69/barrel forecast, if it doesn't I will reaccess the situation. Of which, the two current strong support levels are the 50 day SMA at $51.50 and the extremely strong support at the $45 area...
Here's the XOI so you can see that "SMART" money was accumulating the oil stocks as they were being bashed by none other then the mass media (to start out the year)...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6071 Date:4/2/2005 2:10:40 AM Post #of 6626
***XOI - LOOK WHAT IT DID TODAY***
As I said, these filthy stinkin' boards decided to go down on a very very pivotal day in the markets, so I was unable to report on several occurences today during markets hours after lunch... I reported on the XOI today just after the open claiming it was at trendline resistance: #msg-5921673 - but I was unable to follow up, cause at 2:30 PM, it had broken through that resistance!... this is a significant event as far as I'm concerned. As it closed upon the high of the day...
This chart should tell the rest of the story better then I ever could...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: squ1dk1d who wrote msg# 6084 Date:4/2/2005 1:19:14 AM Post #of 6626
*Sk, maybe the WTIC chart was off earlier but it shows a high now of $57.70 correlating with May light crude oil futures... so many run-away gaps in this chart, it's incredible... pivotal point in time coming next week... if the equities markets do crash like I believe they will eventually and some time this year, then oil will be a culprit... look at gas prices right now, they seem to be jumping 2 cents every day at the pumps... I saw a $1.99 out in the boonies around here a few days back, but I'm sure that was the only one and those prices are all but extinct now for unleaded... cheapest around my neck of the woods is $2.13 at the Wawa... the highest it was at during the last spike last year was $2.03... I don't believe it's going back under $2... and it now has $3 in it's eyesights...
The pope, one of the bigger critics of President Bush for his war in Iraq... yet unreported on by the media is on his deathbed, for all we know, his soul could already be somewhere among the vast universe... do the elites view the pope's death as a ticket to their planned escalation of violence in the middle east, i.e. Iran? If so, you can thank global leaders for the coming and inevitable recession... and if they don't help us, they'll feed us to the dogs through a depression...
I still maintain a target for crude oil of $69/barrel... the chart is still in tact for that target to be hit...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6099 Date:4/2/2005 3:31:08 AM Post #of 6626
**Crude oil - Net Commitments of Traders, take note of similarities between current period and late May of '04, note big difference in open interest though!... Keep in mind that this data is as of Wednesday and a lot happened since then!... I expect the next report to be much different, also the open interest tallies should be watched closely...
*XOI up nicely today, but the volume (imo) is low among the oil stocks, it's especially low vs. Monday which is when we witnessed some type of reversal until proven otherwise. If traders went short at the point I noticed some bearish divergences, they'd still be in the money even here, oil at that point was around $57.40 and the XOI was around 872.90... Currently oil is at $56.45 despite a massive increase in oil reserves, even greater than the ANALysts had predicted... and the XOI is at 866.88...
As usually is the case, the 10 day SMA has offered support here...
I'm slightly bearish still despite this bounce/rally, but bulls might be looking to form an inverted H&S here...
(The market is green here and holding despite oil's bounce, this is telling me that the oil bounce is a "false" bounce... also the broad market closed Monday which was when I believe that the oil markets reversed... this could be nothing more then a fake hype before the 10 day SMA is broken to shake out the new breed of pikers in these stocks...)
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6327 Date:4/6/2005 12:48:55 PM Post #of 6626
*XOI - If it holds up here into the close, then my initially slightly bearish stance just after Monday's open might be changed to a neutral stance. Why the cause for concern or change? Well, I feel that the world's markets are at an extremely pivotal point here in April, but besides that fact, let's face it, how many times this year have we seen the dollar, oil, and gold all up comfortably in the afternoon intraday session??? ...Well don't look up now, but it's happening today...!!!
It might be an anamoly but it's definitely worth noting as soon as something like this happens!... Whipsaw action like this isn't uncommon either, but given the preceding trend and the strength and tenacity of it in the face of doubt, bears may have trouble staying the course here if there trains get derailed... then all of a sudden that $69/barrel is looking alive again, as I pointed out earlier, in order for that to happen, oil needs a strong end of week close this week... who knows what happens at this point as the markets remain firm today despite oils pump... that should favor oil bears, but I bet oil bears are a bit nervous today!...
Crazy market action today... pivotal period upon us this month...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6332 Date: 4/6/2005 4:19:58 PM Post #
*XOI managed to hold green into the close with slight conviction despite oil closing in the red, but it still trades below the high this week which was set on Monday's opening action. This is a 'positive' divergence for the stocks vs. the commodity but the volume today wasn't particularly spectacular, nontheless the XOI should be closely monitored by market paricipants as should oil of course...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6336 Date: 4/7/2005 8:55:00 AM Post #
*May oil futures up to $56.57 (+.72) here this morning, suddenly oil is rising (again), and the short-term bearish stance from Monday is in danger... why? Because the dollar is once again weakening (sigh), and oil may yet again close the week strong (sigh again). $69/barrel?... haven't yet wrote it off, still a possibility at this stage... but at the same time, the light crude oil chart still has a double-top in, but similarly the XOI doesn't seem like it wants to die yet...
A falling dollar is good for the market? Not even close, unless you want continuous record highs in energy prices!... which will inevitably lead to further inflation of essential goods (and services). And Mr Joe & Sally middle class consumer are suddenly going to tie the strings around the family income, we've already seen a bit of it this morning in some of the same stores sales comparisons... anyways, here's the charts... don't forget that a lot of the fate of oil is now tied to the U.S. dollar...
(In the event that the U.S. dollar begins to sink day after day here, oil has the possibility to actual obtain a parabolic surge to or near the $69/barrel price target, in the event the market signals this today in some way, it may in fact be time to actually go long if a parabolic move begins to materialize today... the market should know, and inevitably begin to sink!... a strong close in oil/oil equities this week would be extremely bullish for oil, given the early part of the weeks action)
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6340 Date: 4/7/2005 10:33:40 AM Post #
*XOI - Note how it's encountering macd resistance here, if this broke, it could potentially have ramifications on the short-term future price of oil rising... and of course... if it holds, then oil would inevitably decline for at least the short-term, currently markets are up despite oil being up, this is interesting, we'll see how everything closes, usually the broader markets are smart then the oil market... so right now odds favor a short-term decline for XOI and oil... but again, we're at a very pivotal market point here and calls this week seem as hard as any other week in '05 has been so far... it's certainly getting interesting... and I must say, I'm impressed by how well the market has held up so far this year, but I'm still steadfast that a healthy and sharp decline is coming & soon! Stay tuned...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6357 Date: 4/7/2005 11:02:21 AM Post #
*XOI & oil are now red for the day! Also note, XOI failed to break to a new weekly high this morning... if oil does slide here and even if it does it sharply, then 'The Trillion-Dollar Head Fake' by Tobin Smith should be a good read... the way the markets trading now reminds me of witches mixing together key ingredients in their soup pots just like this article entails: #msg-5963663
But at the same time, KEEP AN EYE ON THE USD INDEX!!! At this point in time, it's probably smartest to be flat on oils because whipsaw conditions exist and it could literally rise fast or fall fast... crazy market folks... totally crazy...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6361 Date: 4/7/2005 12:43:06 PM Post #
*May oil futures now down -1.55 on the day to $54.30 - Here it comes, today's move was just a low-volume head-fake, and the market pointed to that...
Forget the whipsaw, it looks like the trend has been down since Monday and still is, today's escalating drop is enforcing that...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6366 Date: 4/8/2005 1:53:19 AM Post #
***Oil's chart going forward...
*Pure speculation on my part. I believe it at least tests the 200 day SMA at $47, if not having a sharp shakeout below that into the lower 40's (perhaps briefly). Technically this can be easily achieved by waiting for the RSI(14) to dip under 30... also take note of the gap down there (below the 200 day SMA/under 47) according to this chart...
Posted by: financialadvisor In reply to: financialadvisor who wrote msg# 6381 Date: 4/8/2005 4:00:42 PM Post #
*Oil futures close down -.79 at 53.32... XOI is basically clinging to it's 10 day SMA at this point... somehow... some way... now it's appearing that it's going to close on the low of the day... JUST below the 10 day SMA... wow!...
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
