Never left, just lurking. I've been working on another board and building something along the lines of trading vehicle and sector rotation through a full economic cycle. Lot of meat on monetary policies and economic eras over the last 200 years. There is definitely a distinct cycle to all of this. That is why I think the Fed rate will go to 3.5 to 4.0 before Bernanke takes over next year. The guys lives off of Depression Era history and is a deflation hound. Problem is he is a loose mouth. Not sure how he will take to the Fed-speak.
Not hyping any one trading vehicle on that board as the end all be all. Just identifying next phases in cycles and pinpointed in the proper timeframes. Personally focusing on the Health Care sector and Consumer Staples. They seem to have been the worst performers down around technology stocks over the last few years, but seem to be improving. Charts on some of the leaders seem to be creating bottoming patterns amidst topping broader markets.
I had to get out of here when FA went giddy on Oil that weekend after Goldman's PRed $105/bbl. Monday seems to slap some sense into him and he joined us on the bearish side a few hours later after the market opened. I don't trade long with the bulls or go short with the bears. Oil rallied for months before that report hit and everyone was talking up the low P/Es. A bunch of bull for Bulls if you ask me. Energy P/Es are low and will stay that low. I ignored what they were doing at that time. When a market is peaking it is time to look for one that is beaten up and find a bottom in it. The problem with Bulls or Bears is they get some one sided the longer their hold the profit they miss the small moves that indicate tops or corrections.
I.E. The technology sector looks beaten up but stands to drop some more. Nothing appealing there and the technology sector is a good value when the market is about to transition into a recession. The recession is not here yet.
Health Care looks good. Been watching MRK, PFE and LLY come off their bottoms for weeks. PFE ignored their news that their FDA is pulling their pills off the market and held up. MRK PRs better earnings and blasts off pulling the whole industry up. Even with the remark about not counting litigation costs. They moved hard since doing a pattern break and could come back down to test support. Plus, indications that we are moving into the next Phase of the Secular Cycle. Technologies identified a market peak back in 2000, Energies and Metals are marking another peak here in 2005 and Health Care and Consumer Staples should top off the next one around 2010.
We are still moving into or already are starting on a full recovery of the Primary Cycle. That is why I brought that post to the board. I could care less if it is in line with someone's agenda or not, I just want to pass on information. Energy and Metal peaked (2005) in this primary cycle (2002-2007). Next Primary Cycle peak should come around 2008-2010. The Secular Peak for Energies and Metals is expected around 2030. So I'm under the impression metals are a buy when the cycle bottom come in a year or two. Probably 380 to 350. Don’t get me wrong. Gold had some good pattern breaks there on the triangles but people have become stupid about triangles. They only point out consolidation, and only a break means bullishness or bearishness. All the previous pattern breaks on gold were great, but they all happened in a low Interest rate environment.
This is one of my last posts and I nedd to save a few for tonight to post the Multiple Head and Shoulders patterns and the definition behind them. Have a good day.
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