News Focus
News Focus
icon url

upshegrows

02/23/11 10:52 AM

#311 RE: GWMAN #310

Guys/Gals,

Just weighing in. I think when you talk this way that you end up setting yourself up for disappointment.

We've ball parked the share count to end up around 87M issued and 110M fully diluted (* just a guess at this point *)after the current PP is fully executed. They should emerge from that PP with no debt and about $500K in working capital.

See my previous post about the operational metrics that Valcent is likely to have.

If one machine sells tomorrow let's estimate it goes for around $1.5M. If Valcent can get a 40% EBITDA margin then they should create EBITDA of $600K.

At $.50/share (as you've estimated)some of the warrants/options will be in the money and some won't. I'll take a share count of 100M to make the math easy.

At 100M shares the Enterprise value of Valcent would be:

EV = (100M * $.50) + (net debt= $0 - $500K = -$500K)
EV = $49.5M

EV/EBITDA = 82.5X

That's a crazy multiple and one that you would only see should the market get excited and extrapolate huge growth occurring almost immediately.

Could happen but I don't think the odds are in your favor.

I would encourage folks to forget about what the share price is going to be in 6 months or even 2 years. Rather, concentrate your efforts on analyzing the business fundamentals and as long as those are going the right way the stock price will eventually follow.

If you own shares, I would encourage you to figure out what you paid for your piece of the entire business.

For instance, if you paid $.19/share the option/warrants aren't in the money yet - therefore the current issued share count would be estimated around 87M (total guess on my part). Therefore the EV you've paid is $16M or so ... etc ...