Replies to post #114717 on Biotech Values

[mouton29]

<<i don't know if you can call this report high quality. while the uncertainty regarding tL may continue to weigh on shares this year, and i can't really argue with their comments on mC (although mnta is hopeful for a 2011 trial still) or on the (lack of) valuation for m118, there is a gross error>>

If they are truly assuming zero revenue from mL after April 2011, zero value for M118 and the TEVA patent trial not even starting till 2012, I am curious how can they get to a discounted value per share of $21.

Mqybe when they says "We continue to model an April 1 Teva launch, " that just means exactly that, they model it, but are not assuming a 100% probability of that outcome. That would be appropriate given their statement that "Teva’s latest FDA Warning Letter suggests that [April approval] may be optimistic".

[zipjet]

Re: MCH on MNTA

they completely discount the ongoing revenuse stream from lovenox royalty in a multiple generic scenario (+73c/share to -35c/share = -1.08c/share).*
sure overhead is going up modestly - some 3M/quarter (which is presumably why they say "-1.08c OR MORE"), but even the most consevative estimates for royalty has MNTA generating >5M a quarter, and more likely 10M a quarter

We can criticize their numbers and assumptions which I agree are conservative, perhaps tooooo conservative. But they lay out the valuation model in Part B in detail. Assumptions are always in the mind of the author. :-)

I consider the financial work up a quality job.

I also found some insights in the report that I have not seen anywhere. Another indicia of quality.

Respectfully,

ij

[marthambles]

as an aside i think the assumption mL is worthless if tL wins approval seems like a prevasive mistake

Since the Lovenox generic sales would be pocket change to Teva, don't you think they would price tL sufficiently low to essentially deprive Momenta of any meaningful return, thereby exerting maximum financial pressure on the company that is threatening Teva's most important franchise?