FWIW - UBSW has ARW at "reduce" with a price target of $9. I know you don't think much of analysts' recommendations (lately, you've been very right in that), and you don't short, but it seems to me that an "industry arbitrage" of long SEMI and short ARW might make sense.
Frankly, I think something is hidden here. ARW looks so bad, especially compared to SEMI, that it's pretty hard to justify the price. I may short it w/o necessarily even going long SEMI.