Here in Chicago today there is about 1 1/2 feet of snow and traders have taken the day off. The CME is probably vacant. For the most part, trading is very lite today. I dont think much can be construed by todays action. Like you said, if these bears had shown up earlier we would have given them some merit but now they are misguided and dont understand the fundamentals underpinning the market.
Like you said, variables can change but I look at the chart and wonder how these bears can make their case. History is not on their side. I'll admit, even my brokerage maintains that we could see downside to 26.30 and if that doesnt hold 25.00 but we've already been there and that doesnt equate with ZSL priced at 18.00 - maybe 13.00 at best. Since the banksters are facing legal threats like RICO charges they wont be so bold and raid the market again.
So at their best, the bears bag 2 points - big deal. Those of us that have been trading since the middle of last Summer have made huge gains.
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