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was Steve

04/01/05 7:09 PM

#29179 RE: was Steve #29178

CUV is a pretty big -.72% for europe for monday so they will gap down and should be red when we open for biz
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Namiar

04/01/05 7:29 PM

#29180 RE: was Steve #29178

Yup, but surely the MM's will disguise the plunge as best they can for as long as they can.

I still need to come up with a model which justifies me taking short trending positions. Have had this on the back burner for awhile, but haven't gone to work on it. Seems like a few years ago I had a trending model that worked decently in a short environment but didn't cut it in a Bull mode. Since we were in a Bull mode back then, I scrapped it.

For some reason I am just now noticing that yesterday was a perfect setup for a 50-50 long RUT/short NDX hedge. Instead I was in cash . . . gotta pay more attention when opportunities arise.
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otraque

04/01/05 8:47 PM

#29187 RE: was Steve #29178

When is the next FOMC meeting.
I feel then all hope that the fed is not determined to get back to at least 3.75%(4% more likely).
I have come to conclusion the Fed does not care what market reaction will be.
They have got to get interest rates up in order to cover various possible scenarios.
Let's say the FED thinks, yes the economy indeed MIGHT slow down so in that case we MUST have enough bullets to drop interest rates again.
I see them looking to 3.75% to 4.00% and feel they have sent out an abundance of signals to let people know they have zero intention of holding back.
The old saw is "Don't fight the Fed".
They have done all they can to say gets used to it, we are moving those rates up.
That bounce up on the bad JR was the same old crowd that think, hey they won't be raising interest rates, they can't, not with that JR.
I say these blokes are FIGHTING THE FED.
Then the ISM came and there is inflation signal in that report, and bang they start selling.
I say it does not matter what is showing in these numbers, The Fed is going to continue to raise rates.