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Rich1

11/22/02 7:01 AM

#48359 RE: Alex G #48274

Okay...All I know is Carpino had the 10th nailed and was within a half point of the low..
Interesting comments from IBD this a.m..

The Big Picture
Friday, November 22, 2002

Coming Monday: A special report in IBD focuses on investment tools for today's investor.
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Market Indexes Break Out As Techs Lead Rally
BY CHRIS GESSEL

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

The stock market broke out with authority Thursday, the latest confirmation of the rally that began six weeks ago.

Armed with Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) earnings surprise and encouraging economic data, stocks powered higher from the open.

The Nasdaq reprised its leading role. The tech-heavy index vaulted 3.4%. It cleared a cup-with-handle base that stretched back to August. And like a strong stock breaking past resistance, volume surged 38% to 2.45 billion shares. It was the heaviest up volume in 4 1/2 months and the unmistakable sign of institutional investors piling into the market.

Cup-with-handle breakouts showed up in other indexes. The big-cap S&P 500 advanced 2.1%, clearing the high of its handle. The small-cap S&P 600 just poked above its handle with a gain of 2.3%. The Dow Jones industrial average, which is found on B4 in today's edition, also broke out. NYSE volume shot up 59% to 2.4 billion shares as advances beat declines better than 2-to-1.

Thursday's breakouts instilled more confidence in this market. But the first signs of a serious upturn occurred more than a month ago. On Oct. 10, the major indexes reversed higher after hitting new lows in the 2 1/2-year bear market early in the day. One big gain was nothing to get excited about. The grinding sell-off was filled with head fakes as well as longer rallies that offered some trading opportunities.

This attempted rally carried a few differences. The public had given up on the market and flooded mutual funds with redemptions in prior months. Psychological indicators had hit extreme levels, although they had given many false positives. One little-noticed sign was the washout selling on Oct. 9. Declines swamped advances 6-to-1, a rare occurrence usually reserved for market bottoms.

Within four days, all the major indexes followed through with hefty gains on heavy volume. That was the first confirmation of the market's turn. Two days later the indexes followed through again, with gains of 2% or more in higher volume than the prior day. Leading stocks began breaking out, also confirming the shift in trend.

But like so many times before, the market started running into trouble. Distribution started cropping up on the indexes on Oct. 22 as they declined in heavier volume. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, S&P 600 and the Dow withstood the selling. But many breakouts did not.

Nevertheless, the market moved higher in rising volume in early November and then pulled back in lighter trade. The indexes were behaving well again. Even better for growth investors, leading stocks began to break out and move higher. A few notched quick 20% gains. Others pulled back near their pivot points but held firm. The market was back on track.

A wide swath of leading stocks feasted on Thursday's rally. Breakouts ranged from Mentor (MNTR), a maker of reconstructive surgery products, to OmniVision Technologies (OVTI), which produces image-capturing devices for cell phones and digital cameras.

Prior breakouts also surged. United Online (UNTD) ran up 1.57 to 15.82 in massive volume. Pixar (PIXR) climbed 2.29 to 58.40. Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) jumped 2 to 46.07. SafeNet (SFNT) vaulted 2.22 to 24.98 in furious trading. They all hit at least 52-week highs.



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Jerry Olson

11/22/02 7:20 AM

#48361 RE: Alex G #48274

Morning alex

while you've selected 2 post out of hundreds..i can and often do change direction as the charts suggest..after all i trade the markets for a living...and teach others how to do it as well..

that day i was looking for a big break..it actually came as the SPX broke a triple bottom..however that day was an outside day reversal..i exited my puts and scalped and daytraded for 2 weeks or so being very cautious of that reversal...

i then went heavily long as posted on my thread on SI..each week i put it up 1 week behind my subscribers...

so as a P&F chartist we have to go with the flow and play caboose...

the entire market sentiment has changed...biases will kill you...

good luck

OJ