Replies to post #113276 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

MNTA: How is it management's fault re stock price gyrations? Can MNTA expedite the FDA's review of mCopaxone, for example?

[biomaven0]

The only way I get close to $8 is if M-Copax stays in never-never land.

Even then I don't get close to $8. Worst reasonable case would be that MNTA has about $6 in cash at the time of T-enox approval (thanks to IJ on SI for that estimate), and then you have to add the NPV of the royalty stream. Add to that, even if you take a relatively negative view of the prospects for M-Copax approval (as I do), it still has a significant expected value.

Peter

[DragonBits]

jbog, $8 or not isn't the real question. The real question is how much can I make buying at 12.55?

It's possible to spike down to the 8s, I doubt it would stay there.

But at least if it did it would make for a nice buy.

What is the big question, what can get it to 20-30. Because I am not sure I want to buy a stock just because it isn't likely to go down that much and what is the current upside here, now it's probably 15 in the short term?

Even with this greater that 20% drop today, the puts didn't really go up that much. Because this stock is hedged all over the place, it doesn't make for a great buy or a great short. Now if it got down to below 10 at least you can make some decent money going long.